Nashville Predators vs. Tampa Bay LightningMar 15, 2021

FinalMonday, Mar 15, 2021· Amalie Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
NSH	0	3	1	4		NSH	10	9	7	26
TBL	0	0	1	1		TBL	10	13	16	39

: NSH 37TBL 59
: NSH 2.74TBL 3.47
PP goals: NSH 1TBL 0
Hits: NSH 17TBL 20
Blocks: NSH 12TBL 8
PIM: NSH 14TBL 14
: NSH 49%TBL 51%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Nashville Predators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 4–1

Nashville Predators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 4–1 at TBL. Calle Jarnkrok (NSH) led the scoring with 1G 3A. New look for NSH: Johansen–Forsberg–Tolvanen skated 12:37 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (40.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

Points
Calle Jarnkrok had a goal and 3 assists (4 points) on 2 shots in 14:36.Jarnkrok
Points
Mattias Ekholm had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 3 shots in 24:41.Ekholm
New line
New look for NSH: Johansen–Forsberg–Tolvanen skated 12:37 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (40.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Johansen Forsberg Tolvanen
Goalie
Pekka Rinne (NSH) faced 39 shots and stopped 38 (.974), +11 against a season average of 27.7; the win.Rinne
Luck
TBL scored 1 goal on 3.47 expected goals (59 attempts), well short of its chances.
New line
New look for NSH: Jarnkrok–Granlund–Arvidsson skated 7:32 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (31.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Jarnkrok Granlund Arvidsson
Usage
Ben Harpur (NSH) played 20:37, +4:19 up on his 16:18 season average over 33 games.Harpur
Usage
Barclay Goodrow (TBL) played 11:50, −3:21 down on his 15:11 season average over 54 games.Goodrow

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← NSH attacks left (bottom on phones)TBL attacks right (top on phones) →

TBL
NSH
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 96 of 96 attempts · TBL 59 · NSH 37

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TBL
NSH
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TBL pressure
NSH pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: NSH 26% of the game, TBL 48%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TBL

NSH

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	NSH	TBL
	34	64
	2.06	3.72
	1.95	3.58
	10	14
	2	4
	2	5
	−0.003	+0.002
	26%	48%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Nashville Predators

L1Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen
12:3741% CF
L2Sissons – Trenin – Olivier
8:0436% CF
L3Jarnkrok – Granlund – Arvidsson
7:3231% CF
L4Haula – Cousins – Grimaldi
7:2733% CF
D1Harpur – Fabbro
12:1546% CF
D2Ekholm – Carrier
12:1023% CF
D3Benning – Davies
10:4753% CF

PP1Ekholm – Johansen – Granlund – Forsberg – Tolvanen
2:0275% CF
PP2Haula – Jarnkrok – Cousins – Arvidsson – Carrier
1:4267% CF
PK1FHaula – Jarnkrok
1:33
PK2FGranlund – Sissons
0:59
PK1DEkholm – Carrier
2:17
PK2DBenning – Harpur
2:15

Current NSH line combinations →

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Killorn – Stamkos – Gourde
13:1157% CF
L2Palat – Point – Cirelli
12:0771% CF
L3Johnson – Coleman – Goodrow
8:3167% CF
L4Maroon – Joseph – Volkov
6:5383% CF
D1McDonagh – Cernak
13:2162% CF
D2Hedman – Rutta
12:1368% CF
D3Sergachev – Foote
8:0250% CF

PP1Killorn – Stamkos – Hedman – Palat – Point
3:080% CF
PP2Maroon – Johnson – Gourde – Cirelli – Sergachev
2:52100% CF
PK1FColeman – Goodrow
1:46
PK2FKillorn – Cirelli
1:22
PK1DHedman – Rutta
1:05
PK2DMcDonagh – Cernak
1:03

Current TBL line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

3:58
NSHEeli Tolvanen (Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok)snap0.03 xG
NSH: Jarnkrok, Johansen, Benning, Davies, TolvanenTBL: Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Rutta
NSH 1 – 0 TBL
9:14
NSHViktor ArvidssonPP (Erik Haula, Calle Jarnkrok)slap0.11 xG
NSH: Haula, Jarnkrok, Cousins, Arvidsson, CarrierTBL: Killorn, Hedman, Cirelli, Sergachev
NSH 2 – 0 TBL
11:46
NSHCalle JarnkrokSH (Mattias Ekholm, Pekka Rinne)wrist0.12 xG
NSH: Ekholm, Haula, Jarnkrok, CarrierTBL: Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Palat, Point
NSH 3 – 0 TBL

3rd period

10:03
TBLSteven Stamkos (Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn)wrist0.23 xG
NSH: Ekholm, Haula, Cousins, Grimaldi, FabbroTBL: Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Gourde, Rutta
NSH 3 – 1 TBL
19:40
NSHMattias EkholmEN (Dante Fabbro, Calle Jarnkrok)wrist0.56 xG
NSH: Ekholm, Jarnkrok, Johansen, Granlund, FabbroTBL: Killorn, McDonagh, Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, Sergachev
NSH 4 – 1 TBL

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Nashville Predators

NSH skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Filip Forsberg L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	2	0	0	18:08	—	—	37	40
Ryan Johansen C	L1	0	1	1	+2	2	0.25	1	0	2	17:16	—	—	38	32
Eeli Tolvanen R	L1	1	0	1	+1	2	0.06	1	2	0	16:09	—	—	37	33
Colton Sissons C	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.40	0	2	2	14:40	—	—	35	48
Yakov Trenin C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	1	0	13:52	—	—	44	59
Mathieu Olivier R	L2	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	1	0	5	11:06	—	—	33	34
Mikael Granlund C	L3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	16:35	—	—	33	56
Calle Jarnkrok C	L3	1	3	4	+3	2	0.16	0	1	0	14:36	—	—	32	43
Viktor Arvidsson L	L3	1	0	1	0	3	0.33	0	3	0	13:49	—	—	29	49
Erik Haula L	L4	0	1	1	0	1	0.06	1	0	0	15:40	—	—	27	12
Nick Cousins C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	13:10	—	—	35	18
Rocco Grimaldi R	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	0	12:51	—	—	31	13
Ben Harpur D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	5	20:37	—	—	38	48
Dante Fabbro D	D1	0	1	1	0	2	0.10	0	0	0	17:32	—	—	43	51
Mattias Ekholm D	D2	1	1	2	+1	3	0.73	1	0	0	24:41	—	—	17	22
Alexandre Carrier D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.09	1	3	0	20:02	—	—	21	31
Matt Benning D	D3	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	17:08	—	—	46	31
Jeremy Davies D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	2	0	0	16:11	—	—	44	24

NSH goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Pekka Rinne(start)	W	39	38	1	.974	3.47	60:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Steven Stamkos C	L1	1	0	1	-1	2	0.27	2	0	0	20:01	—	—	60	58
Alex Killorn L	L1	0	1	1	-1	1	0.14	3	0	0	19:42	—	—	54	46
Yanni Gourde C	L1	0	1	1	+1	5	0.32	1	0	2	18:27	—	—	60	57
Anthony Cirelli C	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.14	2	2	0	19:23	—	—	74	76
Brayden Point C	L2	0	0	0	-3	4	0.67	0	0	0	18:23	—	—	75	78
Ondrej Palat L	L2	0	0	0	-2	4	0.65	1	0	0	17:57	—	—	74	77
Blake Coleman L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	0	13:57	—	—	62	45
Tyler Johnson C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	13:19	—	—	71	51
Barclay Goodrow C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	0	0	11:50	—	—	70	48
Patrick Maroon L	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	0	10	11:56	—	—	73	99
Mathieu Joseph R	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	2	0	11:14	—	—	50	71
Alexander Volkov R	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	0	0	9:35	—	—	63	71
Ryan McDonagh D	D1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.16	2	0	0	22:08	—	—	62	57
Erik Cernak D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	2	17:58	—	—	70	59
Victor Hedman D	D2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.37	2	3	0	23:27	—	—	72	82
Jan Rutta D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.13	0	0	0	15:43	—	—	68	65
Mikhail Sergachev D	D3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	1	0	0	23:20	—	—	62	58
Cal Foote D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	11:01	—	—	47	49

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Curtis McElhinney(start)	L	25	22	3	.880	2.18	56:45

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.