Detroit Red Wings vs. Toronto Maple LeafsApr 2, 2023

FinalSunday, Apr 2, 2023· Scotiabank Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
DET	3	0	2	5		DET	10	7	7	24
TOR	1	0	1	2		TOR	15	13	17	45

: DET 48TOR 74
: DET 3.18TOR 3.32
PP goals: DET 0TOR 2
Hits: DET 23TOR 30
Blocks: DET 17TOR 10
PIM: DET 8TOR 14
: DET 36%TOR 64%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Detroit Red Wings beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2

Detroit Red Wings beat Toronto Maple Leafs 5–2 at TOR. Dylan Larkin (DET) led the scoring with 3G 0A. Alex Nedeljkovic (DET) faced 45 shots and stopped 43 (.956), +14 against a season average of 31.1; the win.

Points
Dylan Larkin had a hat trick (3 points) on 5 shots in 18:32.Larkin
Points
Olli Maatta had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 16:36.Maatta
Goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (DET) faced 45 shots and stopped 43 (.956), +14 against a season average of 31.1; the win.Nedeljkovic
New line
New look for DET: Copp–Raymond–Kasper skated 11:46 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (25.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Copp Raymond Kasper
New line
New look for DET: Chiasson–Erne–Suter skated 7:42 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (53.3% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Chiasson Erne Suter
New line
New look for DET: Luff–Veleno–Berggren skated 9:12 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (64.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Luff Veleno Berggren
New line
New look for TOR: Simmonds–Abruzzese–Zohorna skated 5:33 together at 5v5 as the L4 trio (45.5% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Simmonds Abruzzese Zohorna
Luck
DET scored 5 goals on 3.18 expected goals (48 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← DET attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
DET
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 122 of 122 attempts · TOR 74 · DET 48

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
DET
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
DET pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: DET 29% of the game, TOR 31%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

DET

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	DET	TOR
	48	70
	2.97	2.43
	2.83	2.35
	14	16
	4	6
	19	14
	−0.096	+0.096
	29%	31%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Detroit Red Wings

L1Copp – Raymond – Kasper
11:4626% CF
L2Perron – Kubalik – Larkin
10:4953% CF
L3Luff – Veleno – Berggren
9:1265% CF
L4Chiasson – Erne – Suter
7:4253% CF
D1Chiarot – Edvinsson
16:4850% CF
D2Walman – Seider
13:5728% CF
D3Maatta – Hagg
10:5246% CF

PP1Perron – Chiasson – Larkin – Seider – Raymond
1:0467% CF
PP2Perron – Kubalik – Copp – Walman – Veleno
0:44100% CF
PK1FCopp – Suter
2:42
PK2FLarkin – Veleno
0:53
PK1DWalman – Seider
2:42
PK2DChiarot – Maatta
1:18

Current DET line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf
9:2563% CF
L2Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander
7:2350% CF
L3Jarnkrok – Bunting – Matthews
7:0263% CF
L4Simmonds – Abruzzese – Zohorna
5:3345% CF
D1Brodie – Holl
13:2763% CF
D2Schenn – Rielly
11:5542% CF
D3Timmins – Liljegren
11:5355% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Bunting – Matthews
4:0075% CF
PP2Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Timmins – Liljegren – Abruzzese
0:5667% CF
PK1FJarnkrok – Kerfoot
0:45
PK2FNylander – Aston-Reese
0:43
PK1DSchenn – Liljegren
1:02
PK2DBrodie – Holl
0:47

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

1:30
DETOlli Maattawrist0.14 xG
DET: Chiasson, Maatta, Erne, Hagg, SuterTOR: Lafferty, Aston-Reese, Timmins, Liljegren, Kampf
DET 1 – 0 TOR
7:33
TORCalle JarnkrokPP (Nick Abruzzese, Conor Timmins)wrist0.04 xG
DET: Hagg, Larkin, Veleno, SeiderTOR: Jarnkrok, Kerfoot, Timmins, Liljegren, Abruzzese
DET 1 – 1 TOR
12:45
DETJonatan Berggren (Robert Hagg, Lucas Raymond)wrist0.10 xG
DET: Maatta, Larkin, Berggren, Seider, RaymondTOR: Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander
DET 2 – 1 TOR
19:21
DETDylan Larkin (Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta)wrist0.07 xG
DET: Perron, Maatta, Kubalik, Hagg, LarkinTOR: Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Kerfoot, Nylander
DET 3 – 1 TOR

3rd period

6:00
TORJohn TavaresPP (Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews)wrist0.14 xG
DET: Copp, Walman, Suter, SeiderTOR: Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews
DET 3 – 2 TOR
10:16
DETDylan Larkin (Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider)wrist0.15 xG
DET: Perron, Chiarot, Kubalik, Larkin, SeiderTOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Liljegren
DET 4 – 2 TOR
17:48
DETDylan LarkinEN (Jake Walman)wrist0.41 xG
DET: Perron, Kubalik, Larkin, Walman, SeiderTOR: Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews
DET 5 – 2 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Detroit Red Wings

DET skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Andrew Copp C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	0	0	18:20	—	—	30	50
Marco Kasper C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	3	0	0	14:59	—	—	23	40
Lucas Raymond L	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.41	1	0	2	14:54	—	—	24	41
Dylan Larkin C	L2	3	0	3	+4	5	0.67	1	0	2	18:32	—	—	44	51
David Perron L	L2	0	0	0	+3	1	0.00	4	1	0	15:58	—	—	46	49
Dominik Kubalik L	L2	0	1	1	+3	1	0.24	0	0	0	14:32	—	—	47	59
Joseph Veleno C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	13:41	—	—	65	74
Matt Luff R	L3	0	0	0	0	3	0.51	1	0	0	13:04	—	—	52	61
Jonatan Berggren R	L3	1	0	1	+1	2	0.51	1	0	0	12:11	—	—	62	72
Pius Suter C	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	2	0	14:31	—	—	50	67
Adam Erne L	L4	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	0	2	12:22	—	—	36	53
Alex Chiasson R	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.12	0	1	0	11:28	—	—	43	66
Simon Edvinsson D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	3	2	0	22:25	—	—	39	48
Ben Chiarot D	D1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.09	1	2	0	21:52	—	—	53	68
Moritz Seider D	D2	0	1	1	+3	2	0.09	0	2	0	22:49	—	—	41	66
Jake Walman D	D2	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	4	2	20:16	—	—	31	56
Olli Maatta D	D3	1	1	2	+3	1	0.15	0	0	0	16:36	—	—	47	55
Robert Hagg D	D3	0	1	1	+2	1	0.03	1	2	0	14:23	—	—	34	44

DET goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Alex Nedeljkovic(start)	W	45	43	2	.956	3.32	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Sam Lafferty C	L1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.18	4	1	0	14:35	—	—	64	53
David Kampf C	L1	0	0	0	-1	4	0.39	3	0	0	14:08	—	—	63	57
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	2	0	0	12:29	—	—	64	57
William Nylander R	L2	0	0	0	-4	4	0.39	0	0	0	22:04	—	—	63	51
John Tavares C	L2	1	0	1	-4	4	0.34	1	0	0	20:34	—	—	59	42
Alexander Kerfoot C	L2	0	0	0	-2	2	0.19	1	0	0	15:42	—	—	52	37
Auston Matthews C	L3	0	1	1	-2	6	0.38	1	0	0	23:27	—	—	66	51
Calle Jarnkrok C	L3	1	0	1	-1	5	0.46	0	1	0	15:59	—	—	58	35
Michael Bunting L	L3	0	0	0	-1	5	0.31	1	0	12	14:02	—	—	65	52
Radim Zohorna L	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	0	0	12:09	—	—	54	40
Nick Abruzzese C	L4	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	9:06	—	—	39	11
Wayne Simmonds R	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	2	8:04	—	—	46	33
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	1	0	20:02	—	—	69	51
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	-2	2	0.06	2	1	0	19:19	—	—	66	55
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	1	1	-2	2	0.08	0	1	0	24:08	—	—	51	38
Luke Schenn D	D2	0	0	0	0	3	0.08	7	2	0	16:56	—	—	52	33
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	3	1	0	17:49	—	—	56	35
Conor Timmins D	D3	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	0	2	0	16:23	—	—	58	39

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ilya Samsonov	L	16	14	2	.875	1.94	42:48
Matt Murray(start)	—	7	5	2	.714	0.83	16:16

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.