Detroit Red Wings vs. Buffalo SabresDec 29, 2022

FinalThursday, Dec 29, 2022· KeyBank Center

away

Detroit Red WingsDET

3

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

6

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
DET	0	0	3	3		DET	7	7	17	31
BUF	1	4	1	6		BUF	14	11	10	35

: DET 47BUF 61
: DET 2.41BUF 4.52
PP goals: DET 1BUF 1
Hits: DET 15BUF 9
Blocks: DET 16BUF 7
PIM: DET 10BUF 6
: DET 46%BUF 54%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres beat Detroit Red Wings 6–3

Buffalo Sabres beat Detroit Red Wings 6–3 at home. Kyle Okposo (BUF) led the scoring with 3G 0A. Magnus Hellberg (DET) faced 34 shots and stopped 29 (.853), +9 against a season average of 24.8; the loss.

Points
Kyle Okposo had a hat trick (3 points) on 5 shots in 13:05.Okposo
Points
Casey Mittelstadt had two goals (2 points) on 2 shots in 14:20.Mittelstadt
Points
Dominik Kubalik had two goals (2 points) on 5 shots in 13:59.Kubalik
Points
JJ Peterka had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 14:24.Peterka
Points
Owen Power had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 21:08.Power
Points
Zemgus Girgensons had 2 assists (2 points) on 3 shots in 10:02.Girgensons
Goalie
Magnus Hellberg (DET) faced 34 shots and stopped 29 (.853), +9 against a season average of 24.8; the loss.Hellberg
Usage
Jeff Skinner (BUF) played 20:26, +3:05 up on his 17:22 season average over 78 games.Skinner

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← DET attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
DET
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 108 of 108 attempts · BUF 61 · DET 47

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
DET
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
DET pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: DET 25% of the game, BUF 57%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

DET

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	DET	BUF
	37	58
	1.77	3.15
	1.73	3.07
	8	13
	0	1
	7	12
	−0.026	+0.026
	25%	57%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Detroit Red Wings

L1Perron – Larkin – Rasmussen
10:0444% CF
L2Veleno – Berggren – Soderblom
7:4545% CF
L3Sundqvist – Kubalik – Suter
7:1333% CF
L4Copp – Erne – Raymond
6:1333% CF
D1Chiarot – Seider
14:5940% CF
D2Maatta – Oesterle
13:1258% CF
D3Walman – Hronek
12:4930% CF

PP1Perron – Larkin – Rasmussen – Seider – Raymond
1:21
PP2Sundqvist – Kubalik – Veleno – Berggren – Seider
1:19100% CF
PK1FCopp – Erne
1:29
PK2FLarkin – Rasmussen
1:19
PK1DWalman – Hronek
3:23
PK2DChiarot – Seider
2:00

Current DET line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
13:2959% CF
L2Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs
8:4354% CF
L3Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt
7:4845% CF
L4Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
7:4180% CF
D1Samuelsson – Dahlin
15:0777% CF
D2Clague – Power
11:5257% CF
D3Bryson – Lyubushkin
9:5156% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
3:36100% CF
PP2Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Quinn – Peterka – Power
3:2875% CF
PK1FJost – Cozens
1:00
PK2FTuch – Thompson
0:54
PK1DSamuelsson – Lyubushkin
1:50
PK2DBryson – Dahlin
1:00

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

15:32
BUFCasey Mittelstadt (JJ Peterka, Owen Power)wrist0.02 xG
DET: Erne, Walman, Hronek, Suter, BerggrenBUF: Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Quinn, Peterka, Power
DET 0 – 1 BUF

2nd period

1:20
BUFJeff Skinnerwrist0.20 xG
DET: Perron, Larkin, Walman, Hronek, RasmussenBUF: Skinner, Lyubushkin, Cozens, Quinn, Power
DET 0 – 2 BUF
10:28
BUFCasey MittelstadtPP (Owen Power, JJ Peterka)backhand0.06 xG
DET: Erne, Walman, Hronek, RasmussenBUF: Olofsson, Mittelstadt, Quinn, Peterka, Power
DET 0 – 3 BUF
11:21
BUFKyle Okposo (Zemgus Girgensons, Peyton Krebs)wrist0.11 xG
DET: Perron, Chiarot, Larkin, Rasmussen, SeiderBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Clague, Krebs, Power
DET 0 – 4 BUF
14:02
BUFKyle Okposo (Tyson Jost)wrist0.16 xG
DET: Sundqvist, Kubalik, Hronek, Suter, SeiderBUF: Okposo, Jost, Mittelstadt, Bryson, Lyubushkin
DET 0 – 5 BUF

3rd period

2:35
DETDominik Kubalik (Elmer Soderblom)snap0.13 xG
DET: Chiarot, Kubalik, Veleno, Seider, SoderblomBUF: Bryson, Lyubushkin, Cozens, Quinn, Peterka
DET 1 – 5 BUF
4:23
DETDominik KubalikPP (Joseph Veleno, Oskar Sundqvist)snap0.04 xG
DET: Sundqvist, Kubalik, Veleno, Berggren, SeiderBUF: Tuch, Thompson, Samuelsson, Lyubushkin
DET 2 – 5 BUF
7:11
DETJordan Oesterle (Andrew Copp, Jonatan Berggren)wrist0.06 xG
DET: Maatta, Copp, Oesterle, Berggren, RaymondBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Clague, Krebs, Power
DET 3 – 5 BUF
16:22
BUFKyle OkposoEN (Zemgus Girgensons, Dylan Cozens)snap0.97 xG
DET: Perron, Kubalik, Larkin, Hronek, Rasmussen, RaymondBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens
DET 3 – 6 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Detroit Red Wings

DET skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Michael Rasmussen C	L1	0	0	0	-3	1	0.16	0	0	0	18:35	—	—	45	27
Dylan Larkin C	L1	0	0	0	-3	1	0.16	1	0	0	16:28	—	—	44	27
David Perron L	L1	0	0	0	-3	3	0.09	0	0	0	15:03	—	—	47	27
Joseph Veleno C	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.27	1	0	2	14:27	—	—	48	63
Jonatan Berggren R	L2	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	0	0	2	12:31	—	—	35	49
Elmer Soderblom L	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.30	0	0	2	11:06	—	—	58	73
Oskar Sundqvist C	L3	0	1	1	-1	1	0.03	0	0	0	15:10	—	—	25	9
Dominik Kubalik L	L3	2	0	2	-1	5	0.38	1	1	0	13:59	—	—	46	41
Pius Suter C	L3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.11	0	0	0	13:29	—	—	28	11
Andrew Copp C	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.14	2	0	0	15:20	—	—	32	34
Adam Erne L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	2	15:10	—	—	24	19
Lucas Raymond L	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	1	0	0	14:35	—	—	33	37
Moritz Seider D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	1	2	21:55	—	—	41	29
Ben Chiarot D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.07	3	3	0	21:48	—	—	38	23
Olli Maatta D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	2	0	16:51	—	—	59	71
Jordan Oesterle D	D2	1	0	1	+1	2	0.08	0	2	0	14:38	—	—	55	70
Filip Hronek D	D3	0	0	0	-4	6	0.28	1	1	0	21:25	—	—	29	31
Jake Walman D	D3	0	0	0	-2	2	0.21	2	5	0	19:33	—	—	27	35

DET goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Magnus Hellberg(start)	L	34	29	5	.853	3.18	58:43

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Alex Tuch R	L1	0	0	0	0	3	0.34	1	1	0	21:54	—	—	63	82
Tage Thompson C	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	0	0	21:39	—	—	65	83
Jeff Skinner L	L1	1	0	1	+1	6	0.75	0	0	0	20:26	—	—	62	83
Kyle Okposo R	L2	3	0	3	+2	5	1.33	0	1	0	13:05	—	—	45	58
Peyton Krebs C	L2	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	11:04	—	—	50	56
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	2	2	+1	3	0.29	1	1	0	10:02	—	—	54	61
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	2	0	2	+2	2	0.08	0	1	0	14:20	—	—	63	35
Victor Olofsson L	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	0	0	13:49	—	—	57	30
Tyson Jost C	L3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	1	0	0	12:42	—	—	56	41
Dylan Cozens C	L4	0	1	1	+1	0	0.22	0	0	0	16:25	—	—	65	79
JJ Peterka R	L4	0	2	2	0	3	0.14	0	0	2	14:24	—	—	68	78
Jack Quinn R	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.27	0	0	0	13:01	—	—	75	74
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	0	0	+1	4	0.23	1	0	2	25:17	—	—	76	79
Mattias Samuelsson D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.55	1	0	0	22:13	—	—	78	78
Owen Power D	D2	0	2	2	+2	2	0.17	0	1	2	21:08	—	—	54	65
Kale Clague D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	14:01	—	—	52	68
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	1	0	17:36	—	—	46	52
Jacob Bryson D	D3	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0	12:26	—	—	58	45

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen(start)	W	31	28	3	.903	2.41	59:39

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.