Buffalo Sabres vs. Tampa Bay LightningFeb 21, 2019

Final / SOThursday, Feb 21, 2019· Amalie Arena

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Goals	1	2	3	OT	2OT	SO	T		Shots	1	2	3	OT	2OT	T
BUF	1	0	0	0	0	0	1		BUF	17	6	6	1	0	30
TBL	0	1	0	0	0	1	2		TBL	15	15	7	3	0	40

: BUF 49TBL 62
: BUF 2.26TBL 4.16
PP goals: BUF 0TBL 0
Hits: BUF 18TBL 16
Blocks: BUF 12TBL 11
PIM: BUF 10TBL 12
: BUF 40%TBL 60%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Tampa Bay Lightning edge Buffalo Sabres 2–1 (SO)

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Buffalo Sabres 2–1 in a shootout at home. Nikita Kucherov (TBL) led the scoring with 1G 0A. New look for BUF: Skinner–Eichel–Rodrigues skated 10:52 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (51.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.

New line
New look for BUF: Skinner–Eichel–Rodrigues skated 10:52 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (51.9% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Skinner Eichel Rodrigues
New line
New look for TBL: Johnson–Kucherov–Point skated 12:57 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (74.2% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Johnson Kucherov Point
Luck
TBL scored 1 goal on 4.16 expected goals (62 attempts), well short of its chances.
Goalie
Carter Hutton (BUF) faced 40 shots and stopped 39 (.975), +9 against a season average of 30.8; the overtime loss.Hutton
New line
New look for TBL: Killorn–Gourde–Cirelli skated 7:57 together at 5v5 as the L3 trio (66.7% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Killorn Gourde Cirelli
Usage
Jack Eichel (BUF) played 24:39, +4:16 up on his 20:23 season average over 76 games.Eichel
Usage
Evan Rodrigues (BUF) played 20:47, +5:02 up on his 15:45 season average over 73 games.Rodrigues
Usage
Jake McCabe (BUF) played 23:39, +4:47 up on his 18:52 season average over 58 games.McCabe

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← BUF attacks left (bottom on phones)TBL attacks right (top on phones) →

TBL
BUF
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 111 of 111 attempts · TBL 62 · BUF 49

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TBL
BUF
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TBL pressure
BUF pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: BUF 16% of the game, TBL 50%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TBL

BUF

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	BUF	TBL
	46	59
	2.07	3.27
	1.98	3.14
	2	8
	5	6
	16	12
	−0.080	+0.081
	16%	50%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Eichel – Rodrigues
10:5252% CF
L2Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons
8:5044% CF
L3Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt
8:1929% CF
L4Sobotka – Thompson – Smith
5:4317% CF
D1McCabe – Ristolainen
17:1126% CF
D2Bogosian – Dahlin
12:1953% CF
D3Hunwick – Beaulieu
6:5560% CF

PP1Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel – Mittelstadt – Dahlin
4:3950% CF
PP2Pominville – Ristolainen – Sheary – Rodrigues – Thompson
2:06
PK1FSobotka – Rodrigues
2:57
PK2FLarsson – Girgensons
1:18
PK1DBogosian – McCabe
2:57
PK2DHunwick – Beaulieu
1:01

Current BUF line combinations →

Tampa Bay Lightning

L1Johnson – Kucherov – Point
12:5774% CF
L2Stamkos – Palat – Miller
9:5253% CF
L3Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli
7:5767% CF
L4Paquette – Erne – Joseph
6:5731% CF
D1Stralman – Hedman
15:3858% CF
D2Coburn – Sergachev
13:0365% CF
D3McDonagh – Cernak
12:1141% CF

PP1Stamkos – Hedman – Palat – Kucherov – Point
4:05100% CF
PP2Killorn – Johnson – Miller – Gourde – Sergachev
0:58
PK1FGourde – Paquette
2:53
PK2FKillorn – Cirelli
1:17
PK1DMcDonagh – Cernak
3:11
PK2DStralman – Hedman
2:09

Current TBL line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

18:13
BUFRasmus Dahlin (Zach Bogosian, Jack Eichel)wrist0.01 xG
BUF: Bogosian, Skinner, Eichel, Rodrigues, DahlinTBL: McDonagh, Stamkos, Palat, Miller, Cernak
BUF 1 – 0 TBL

2nd period

11:10
TBLNikita Kucherov (Tyler Johnson)wrist0.11 xG
BUF: Bogosian, Skinner, Eichel, Rodrigues, DahlinTBL: Stralman, Johnson, Hedman, Kucherov, Point
BUF 1 – 1 TBL

Decided in the shootout: BUF 1 – 2 TBL.

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Jack Eichel C	L1	0	1	1	7	0.37	0	0	0	24:39	—	—	55	47
Evan Rodrigues C	L1	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	20:47	—	—	50	36
Jeff Skinner L	L1	0	0	0	5	0.47	0	1	2	18:04	—	—	54	56
Zemgus Girgensons C	L2	0	0	0	3	0.11	4	1	0	16:33	—	—	43	23
Johan Larsson L	L2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	14:00	—	—	39	21
Jason Pominville R	L2	0	0	0	2	0.08	0	0	0	13:43	—	—	42	23
Sam Reinhart C	L3	0	0	0	3	0.22	0	0	0	19:24	—	—	42	40
Casey Mittelstadt C	L3	0	0	0	1	0.18	0	0	0	16:11	—	—	35	23
Conor Sheary L	L3	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	14:10	—	—	33	23
Vladimir Sobotka C	L4	0	0	0	1	0.36	2	0	0	15:35	—	—	35	53
Tage Thompson C	L4	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	0	11:30	—	—	36	51
C.J. Smith L	L4	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	6:29	—	—	29	24
Rasmus Ristolainen D	D1	0	0	0	1	0.11	4	1	4	26:32	—	—	31	39
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	3	0	23:39	—	—	24	34
Zach Bogosian D	D2	0	1	1	0	0.00	1	4	2	22:54	—	—	50	44
Rasmus Dahlin D	D2	1	0	1	2	0.10	1	1	0	21:20	—	—	53	48
Matt Hunwick D	D3	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	12:14	—	—	42	24
Nathan Beaulieu D	D3	0	0	0	2	0.10	1	1	0	11:16	—	—	60	27

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Carter Hutton(start)	O	40	39	1	.975	4.16	65:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

TBL skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Nikita Kucherov R	L1	1	0	1	+1	8	0.91	1	0	2	22:44	—	—	71	82
Brayden Point C	L1	0	0	0	+1	3	0.60	0	1	4	20:40	—	—	73	88
Tyler Johnson C	L1	0	1	1	+1	3	0.18	0	0	0	18:40	—	—	73	86
Steven Stamkos C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.16	1	0	0	20:06	—	—	50	54
Ondrej Palat L	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.29	0	0	0	13:58	—	—	55	68
J.T. Miller C	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.35	4	1	4	13:47	—	—	53	68
Alex Killorn L	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	0	0	0	16:43	—	—	58	53
Anthony Cirelli C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	0	2	0	15:39	—	—	59	79
Yanni Gourde C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	15:28	—	—	63	82
Cedric Paquette C	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	12:48	—	—	24	22
Adam Erne L	L4	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	8:55	—	—	27	35
Mathieu Joseph R	L4	0	0	0	0	2	0.28	1	1	0	8:31	—	—	25	23
Victor Hedman D	D1	0	0	0	+1	4	0.38	0	2	0	27:23	—	—	60	70
Anton Stralman D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.03	1	2	0	21:13	—	—	57	62
Mikhail Sergachev D	D2	0	0	0	0	5	0.32	0	0	0	16:44	—	—	70	60
Braydon Coburn D	D2	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	0	0	14:31	—	—	64	53
Ryan McDonagh D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	22:28	—	—	41	61
Erik Cernak D	D3	0	0	0	-1	1	0.19	4	1	2	16:42	—	—	44	67

TBL goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Andrei Vasilevskiy(start)	W	30	29	1	.967	2.26	65:00

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.