Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple LeafsMar 13, 2023

FinalMonday, Mar 13, 2023· Scotiabank Arena

away

home

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	1	3	4		BUF	3	17	9	29
TOR	0	2	1	3		TOR	12	3	13	28

: BUF 55TOR 49
: BUF 3.72TOR 2.06
PP goals: BUF 1TOR 0
Hits: BUF 24TOR 30
Blocks: BUF 10TOR 15
PIM: BUF 2TOR 6
: BUF 34%TOR 66%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Buffalo Sabres edge Toronto Maple Leafs 4–3

Buffalo Sabres beat Toronto Maple Leafs 4–3 at TOR. Auston Matthews (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 2A. BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin and Cozens) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 3:30 together.

Points
Auston Matthews had a goal and 2 assists (3 points) on 5 shots in 23:20.Matthews
Points
Alex Tuch had two goals (2 points) on 5 shots in 20:23.Tuch
Points
Dylan Cozens had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 15:55.Cozens
Points
JJ Peterka had 2 assists (2 points) in 12:56.Peterka
Points
Mitch Marner had 2 assists (2 points) on 1 shot in 22:30.Marner
Points
Owen Power had 2 assists (2 points) in 26:31.Power
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin and Cozens) scored 1 power-play goal on 6 attempts in 3:30 together.Skinner Tuch Thompson Dahlin Cozens
New line
New look for BUF: Skinner–Tuch–Thompson skated 12:42 together at 5v5 as the L1 trio (69.6% of the shot attempts), a combination not used in the team's last 5 games.Skinner Tuch Thompson

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← BUF attacks left (bottom on phones)TOR attacks right (top on phones) →

TOR
BUF
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 104 of 104 attempts · TOR 49 · BUF 55

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

TOR
BUF
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

TOR pressure
BUF pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: BUF 40% of the game, TOR 28%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

TOR

BUF

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	BUF	TOR
	54	48
	2.38	1.85
	2.18	1.82
	13	8
	1	5
	34	22
	−0.108	+0.108
	40%	28%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Buffalo Sabres

L1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
12:4270% CF
L2Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
8:2453% CF
L3Okposo – Girgensons – Jost
7:1540% CF
L4Greenway – Mittelstadt – Krebs
2:4411% CF
D1Jokiharju – Power
17:4640% CF
D2Bryson – Dahlin
11:0025% CF
D3Stillman – Lyubushkin
9:5874% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Thompson – Dahlin – Cozens
3:30100% CF
PP2Mittelstadt – Krebs – Quinn – Peterka – Power
1:38100% CF
PK1FGirgensons – Greenway
1:11
PK2FTuch – Quinn
0:44
PK1DJokiharju – Power
1:11
PK2DStillman – Lyubushkin
0:44

Current BUF line combinations →

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Acciari – Aston-Reese – Kampf
10:1646% CF
L2Tavares – Nylander – Bunting
7:2380% CF
L3Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews
7:0275% CF
D1Holl – McCabe
8:5772% CF
D2Brodie – Rielly
7:4740% CF
D3Giordano – Liljegren
5:3333% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
1:03100% CF
PP2Jarnkrok – Gustafsson – Kerfoot – Lafferty – Bunting
0:49100% CF
PK1FMarner – Kampf
1:16
PK2FKerfoot – Lafferty
0:35
PK1DBrodie – Holl
2:43
PK2DMcCabe – Liljegren
1:01

Current TOR line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

2nd period

1:11
TORAuston Matthews (Alexander Kerfoot, Mitch Marner)wrist0.12 xG
BUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Bryson, Dahlin, KrebsTOR: Giordano, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren
BUF 0 – 1 TOR
4:13
TORCalle Jarnkrok (Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews)wrist0.15 xG
BUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Bryson, Dahlin, KrebsTOR: Brodie, Jarnkrok, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren
BUF 0 – 2 TOR
14:58
BUFJack Quinn (JJ Peterka, Owen Power)other0.04 xG
BUF: Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Quinn, Peterka, PowerTOR: Giordano, Rielly, Kerfoot, Nylander, Liljegren
BUF 1 – 2 TOR

3rd period

3:39
BUFAlex Tuch (Tage Thompson, Owen Power)wrist0.16 xG
BUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, PowerTOR: McCabe, Kerfoot, Lafferty, Marner, Liljegren
BUF 2 – 2 TOR
9:39
BUFDylan Cozens (Riley Stillman, JJ Peterka)wrist0.22 xG
BUF: Stillman, Lyubushkin, Cozens, Quinn, PeterkaTOR: Giordano, Jarnkrok, Lafferty, Bunting, Liljegren
BUF 3 – 2 TOR
11:19
BUFAlex TuchPP (Jeff Skinner, Dylan Cozens)snap0.18 xG
BUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, CozensTOR: Brodie, Holl, Marner, Acciari
BUF 4 – 2 TOR
18:58
TORWilliam Nylander (Auston Matthews)wrist0.07 xG
BUF: Greenway, Dahlin, Lyubushkin, Cozens, QuinnTOR: Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Marner, Matthews
BUF 4 – 3 TOR

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Tage Thompson C	L1	0	1	1	+1	7	0.74	0	0	0	20:56	—	—	73	81
Alex Tuch R	L1	2	0	2	+1	5	0.98	3	0	0	20:23	—	—	73	80
Jeff Skinner L	L1	0	1	1	+1	2	0.42	1	0	0	20:22	—	—	72	78
Dylan Cozens C	L2	1	1	2	0	4	0.47	0	2	0	15:55	—	—	50	48
Jack Quinn R	L2	1	0	1	+1	1	0.10	1	0	0	14:00	—	—	55	70
JJ Peterka R	L2	0	2	2	+2	0	0.11	0	0	0	12:56	—	—	55	70
Tyson Jost C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	0	0	15:42	—	—	47	68
Zemgus Girgensons C	L3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.14	7	1	0	12:50	—	—	53	44
Kyle Okposo R	L3	0	0	0	-2	3	0.13	0	0	2	12:38	—	—	50	42
Casey Mittelstadt C	L4	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	14:45	—	—	32	22
Jordan Greenway L	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	1	2	0	13:50	—	—	29	22
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	1	0	0	8:43	—	—	29	17
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	+2	2	0.09	4	0	0	27:00	—	—	50	56
Owen Power D	D1	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	1	2	0	26:31	—	—	47	56
Rasmus Dahlin D	D2	0	0	0	-3	1	0.41	2	2	0	21:18	—	—	49	37
Jacob Bryson D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	1	0	0	11:53	—	—	32	18
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D3	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	15:36	—	—	70	81
Riley Stillman D	D3	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	12:43	—	—	75	84

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson(start)	W	28	25	3	.893	2.06	60:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Noel Acciari C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	5	0	0	15:19	—	—	43	27
David Kampf C	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	15:16	—	—	44	27
Zachary Aston-Reese L	L1	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	5	0	0	11:08	—	—	46	28
William Nylander R	L2	1	0	1	0	5	0.40	1	2	2	22:24	—	—	47	48
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.35	1	0	0	19:40	—	—	57	65
Michael Bunting L	L2	0	0	0	0	5	0.41	1	0	0	16:51	—	—	71	64
Auston Matthews C	L3	1	2	3	+3	5	0.22	1	2	0	23:20	—	—	44	49
Mitch Marner R	L3	0	2	2	+2	1	0.01	0	1	0	22:30	—	—	55	54
Alexander Kerfoot C	L3	0	1	1	-1	2	0.01	1	0	2	12:13	—	—	47	51
Justin Holl D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	3	0	17:19	—	—	50	44
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	2	1	0	15:59	—	—	61	37
Morgan Rielly D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	2	1	0	18:34	—	—	37	26
TJ Brodie D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	2	0	17:55	—	—	26	34
Timothy Liljegren D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	0	15:58	—	—	29	33
Mark Giordano D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	1	0	2	13:54	—	—	50	52
Erik Gustafsson D	—	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	1	0	14:33	—	—	70	73
Sam Lafferty C	—	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	5	0	0	12:59	—	—	12	1
Calle Jarnkrok C	—	1	0	1	0	2	0.22	0	0	0	12:41	—	—	25	31

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Matt Murray(start)	L	29	25	4	.862	2.82	56:15

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.