Shooting luck (GF − xGF): NHL team rankings
5-on-5 · 2025-26 regular season · GF − xGF
5-on-5 goals scored minus expected goals: finishing talent plus luck.
In 2025-26, the Boston Bruins rank 1st in GF − xGF (5-on-5) at +22.3, the highest mark in the NHL. The New Jersey Devils sit 32nd at −30.2. The league average is −0.7.
All 32 teams by GF − xGF
Highest first. Each team links to GF − xGF on its own stats page.
| Rk | Team | Gap to league average | GF − xGF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boston BruinsBOS | +22.3 | |
| 2 |  Buffalo SabresBUF | +20.1 | |
| 3 |  Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT | +16.8 | |
| 4 |  Tampa Bay LightningTBL | +16.0 | |
| 5 |  Toronto Maple LeafsTOR | +13.9 | |
| 6 |  Montreal CanadiensMTL | +11.5 | |
| 7 |  Colorado AvalancheCOL | +10.5 | |
| 8 |  San Jose SharksSJS | +7.8 | |
| 9 |  Dallas StarsDAL | +7.0 | |
| 10 |  Washington CapitalsWSH | +7.0 | |
| 11 |  New York RangersNYR | +5.6 | |
| 12 |  Utah MammothUTA | +4.4 | |
| 13 |  Seattle KrakenSEA | +4.2 | |
| 14 |  Ottawa SenatorsOTT | +0.8 | |
| 15 |  Philadelphia FlyersPHI | +0.7 | |
| 16 |  Chicago BlackhawksCHI | +0.4 | |
| 17 |  Florida PanthersFLA | +0.1 | |
| 18 |  Winnipeg JetsWPG | −0.9 | |
| 19 |  Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ | −2.7 | |
| 20 |  St. Louis BluesSTL | −4.3 | |
| 21 |  Minnesota WildMIN | −7.9 | |
| 22 |  Calgary FlamesCGY | −8.0 | |
| 23 |  Edmonton OilersEDM | −8.7 | |
| 24 |  Los Angeles KingsLAK | −8.8 | |
| 25 |  Vegas Golden KnightsVGK | −8.9 | |
| 26 |  Nashville PredatorsNSH | −10.8 | |
| 27 |  Anaheim DucksANA | −12.9 | |
| 28 |  Carolina HurricanesCAR | −14.9 | |
| 29 |  New York IslandersNYI | −16.0 | |
| 30 |  Detroit Red WingsDET | −17.3 | |
| 31 |  Vancouver CanucksVAN | −18.9 | |
| 32 |  New Jersey DevilsNJD | −30.2 |
- Above league average
- Below
Top skaters: Goals above expected
Goals minus individual expected goals: finishing plus luck. 2025-26 regular season, qualified skaters only. Each name links to the stat on his player page.
How we calculate team GF − xGF
The team's actual 5-on-5 goals minus the expected goals our model gave its shots.
Why it matters for fantasy hockey
Big positive numbers mean the team's shooters are converting above their chances. Some of it is skill, most of it fades: sell high on depth players riding it.
How to read it
Zero is neutral. +15 over a season is a lot of finishing; −15 is a team whose shots will start going in.
Limitations
Elite shooting teams do beat xG a little every year. Our model does not see pre-shot passes, which some teams create more of.
Go deeper
More luck & regression stats
FAQ
- Which NHL team ranks first in GF − xGF in 2025-26?
- The Boston Bruins rank 1st with the highest GF − xGF in the NHL, +22.3. The top three: Boston Bruins (+22.3), Buffalo Sabres (+20.1), Pittsburgh Penguins (+16.8).
- Can a team sustain scoring above expected goals?
- Partly. Teams with elite shooters beat xG year after year by a few goals, but large gaps almost always shrink.
- What is the Luck Meter?
- Our player-level luck score combining shooting, on-ice shooting and save percentages, IPP and points versus expected.
Ranks are among the 32 current teams; 1st is the highest value. Regular season only, updated through the latest processed games.