Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.0 | 18.6 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 7.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.4 | 5.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.1 | 1.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.6 | 6.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 6.7 | 19.1 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 8.1 | 10.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | 7.9 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | 1.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 9.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 3.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.3 | 10.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse