Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.4 | 7.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | 4.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 10.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.0 | 11.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.7 | 27.4 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.9 | 12.6 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.2 | 8.1 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 14.0 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.0 | 21.4 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.7 | 12.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 13.6 | 17.5 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.0 | 18.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 20.6 | 22.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | 8.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.8 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.9 | 19.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.5 | 6.8 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | 7.2 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.1 | 6.0 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.9 | 19.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.3 | 11.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.1 | 30.0 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 3.6 | 7.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.6 | 10.5 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 4.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.7 | 16.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 7.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.6 | 5.4 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 5.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.0 | 13.9 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.2 | 12.7 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | 1.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 14.6 | 17.7 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.5 | 15.7 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.4 | 17.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 9.2 | 15.4 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.4 | 12.5 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.3 | 17.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.2 | 28.6 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.3 | 14.7 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.1 | 3.8 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | 2.0 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 3.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.0 | 4.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.1 | 15.4 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 8.1 | 9.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 7.9 | 16.3 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.9 | 13.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.6 | 17.1 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.0 | 13.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 8.0 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 17.0 | 22.3 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.3 | 19.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.1 | 17.2 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.1 | 22.2 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 11.0 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.6 | 15.0 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 7.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.5 | 18.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.2 | 18.6 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.5 | 19.5 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.2 | 24.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.8 | 5.5 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.8 | 12.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 10.2 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 18.5 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | 2.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.2 | 13.2 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | 3.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | 7.8 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.9 | 16.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 8.6 | 16.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.5 | 18.7 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.6 | 28.3 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.9 | 19.9 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 3.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | 5.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.9 | 4.4 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.9 | 20.4 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse