Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.6 | 16.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.9 | 3.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.0 | 4.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 1.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 1.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.6 | 6.6 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.5 | 15.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.0 | 14.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.4 | 5.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.5 | 9.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 3.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 3.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 1.8 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.2 | 6.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | 6.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 3.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 1.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 1.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.8 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 4.0 | 4.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 1.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | 3.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.1 | 10.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.7 | 2.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.9 | 2.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 3.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.7 | 3.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.7 | 15.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.9 | 14.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse