Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 6.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 8.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 4.5 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 18.0 | 18.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 4.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 15.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.5 | 23.4 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 5.2 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 8.0 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 20.5 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 17.1 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 4.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 19.0 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 6.0 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 22.1 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 7.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 30.1 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 11.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 21.1 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 20.6 | +14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 22.3 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 19.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 18.1 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 11.5 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | 7.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 3.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 16.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 12.5 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 2.9 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 24.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 19.4 | 28.1 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 3.1 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 18.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 9.3 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 11.4 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 10.4 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrod TaylorQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 21.3 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 19.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 22.0 | 29.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 17.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 21.3 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David SillsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 9.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 12.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 4.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 5.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 11.2 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 6.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 13.5 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 8.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 22.5 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 24.2 | +18.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 10.3 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 7.2 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 5.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 11.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6) | 20.4 | 22.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 20.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse