Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 7.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.2 | 5.3 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.6 | 3.6 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.9 | 5.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.0 | 15.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.6 | 9.9 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.0 | 24.7 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.6 | 7.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.7 | 5.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.9 | 9.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.1 | 9.1 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.0 | 16.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.1 | 9.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.4 | 14.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 2.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.2 | 3.1 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 19.8 | 33.5 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.7 | 2.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.5 | 14.4 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.4 | 4.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.7 | 17.3 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.4 | 0.0 | −12.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.2 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 5.9 | 3.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.9 | 6.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 22.5 | 4.2 | −18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.4 | 25.0 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.4 | 29.7 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.0 | 3.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse