Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W12Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)3.14.6+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.811.1+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.01.5−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.28.2−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)10.324.1+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)12.78.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)11.524.7+13.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.11.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.93.0+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)8.911.1+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.55.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.31.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.16.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.40.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.16.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)6.73.3−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.99.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.42.9−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Luke FarrellTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)10.73.4−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.46.4+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)4.00.0−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W11James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.91.5+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)6.48.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)8.34.8−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.27.2+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)6.14.3−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.10.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)13.514.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.56.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.60.0−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.11.4+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)6.57.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.74.8+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)11.86.1−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.46.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)9.49.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)4.40.0−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)10.21.9−8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)2.53.1+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jonnu SmithTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)7.41.4−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.710.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.22.2+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)8.218.3+10.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.310.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 5 of 19 · 1,811 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse