Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11DJ TurnerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kadarius ToneyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Michael BandyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mac JonesQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.8-0.3−19.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike WoodsWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kaden DavisWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kendric PryorWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jamari ThrashWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.50.4−2.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.50.0−3.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)12.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)12.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Pharaoh BrownTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)4.50.0−4.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)9.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.50.0−3.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 8 of 28 · 2,793 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse