Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.0 | 4.2 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 2.6 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 7.9 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 3.0 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | 7.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 1.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 4.7 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 10.4 | +2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Lawrence CagerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 1.8 | 9.3 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 6.0 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 11.8 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 22.4 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 17.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 1.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 5.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.4 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 2.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 6.1 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CJ DippreTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drake DabneyTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 1.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 9.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 4.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 5.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 2.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 6.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 19 · 1,811 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse