Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandin CooksWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)16.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh ReynoldsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Allen LazardWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandon PowellWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chase EdmondsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.8)19.50.0−19.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Myles GaskinRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Parris CampbellWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.510.4+2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Lawrence CagerTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)12.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.30.0−2.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W18DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.31.5−18.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.12.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Malik WillisQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Eric GrayRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen CropperWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.80.0−2.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)17.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·

Page 1 of 14 · 1,335 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse