Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 14.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Godwin IgwebuikeRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jake FunkRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Evan HullRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse