Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth

Dome team outdoors: every call

Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.

2024 backtest

375–246–68

60.4% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 60.4% (95% 56.5%–64.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

380–236–65

61.7% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.7% (95% 57.8%–65.4%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

53–31–8

63.1% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 63.1% (95% 52.4%–72.6%) vs baseline 61.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR339–194–3463.6%63.7%
RB184–116–3361.3%61.8%
TE177–120–5859.6%60.9%
QB55–52–851.4%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag375–246–6860.4%61.4%
0.25–0.5380–236–6561.7%61.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Dome team outdoors calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Nick VannettTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4David NjokuTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)5.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler ConklinTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.3)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Zach HortonTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Nick VannettTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3David NjokuTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben SimsTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Jack StollTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ben SimsTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Zach HortonTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W2Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Giovanni RicciTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brock WrightTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Princeton FantTE DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Pharaoh BrownTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Foster MoreauTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jack StollTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Princeton FantTE DALFade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Nick VannettTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.4)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler ConklinTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Will MalloryTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Will MalloryTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nick VannettTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jack StollTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nick MuseTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nick MuseTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Will MalloryTE INDFade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected +0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ross DwelleyTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler ConklinTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Nick VannettTE LARFade (Dome team outdoors vs SF, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Pharaoh BrownTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Anthony FirkserTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shane ZylstraTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jack StollTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Treyton WelchTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dallin HolkerTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Moliki MatavaoTE NOFade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS, expected +0.4)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will DisslyTE LACFade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.4)3.0––voidBacktest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse