Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth

Light boxes: every call

Backs who gain more per carry against six or fewer in the box do better against defenses that show light boxes often.

2024 backtest

12–13–2

48.0% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 30.0%–66.5%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

7–24–3

22.6% vs 47.3% baseline

Win rate 22.6% (95% 11.4%–39.8%) vs baseline 47.3%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–1

50.0% vs 50.0% baseline

Win rate 50.0% (95% 9.4%–90.5%) vs baseline 50.0%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB19–37–533.9%49.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.519–36–434.5%49.4%
0.5–10–1–10.0%38.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Light boxes calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)13.717.3+3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)10.218.7+8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4)2.12.4+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.5)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)4.01.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Onta ForemanRB CLEFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Light boxes vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4)16.420.2+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James ConnerRB ARIFade (Light boxes vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)4.63.9−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W10J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)15.39.4−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Isaiah DavisRB NYJFade (Light boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3)5.22.1−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Light boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3)3.70.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Light boxes vs MIA, expected +0.4)18.713.1−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Light boxes vs SEA, expected −0.3)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chuba HubbardRB CARFade (Light boxes vs GB, expected −0.3)9.01.7−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)15.616.5+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.5)14.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick ChubbRB HOUFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)8.68.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Light boxes vs LAC, expected +0.3)4.83.7−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.6)8.61.8−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Light boxes vs IND, expected −0.4)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.7)12.112.4+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W7Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.4)21.721.2−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)5.11.6−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W7De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)15.012.8−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4)7.84.4−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Light boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Light boxes vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4)10.56.1−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Sean TuckerRB TBFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)6.28.5+2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyjae SpearsRB TENFade (Light boxes vs LV, expected −0.3)5.39.0+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ameer AbdullahRB INDFade (Light boxes vs LV, expected −0.6)7.96.6−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W5C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Light boxes vs LAC, expected −0.3)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)23.231.6+8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)12.31.2−11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Travis EtienneRB JAXFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)14.919.5+4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.4)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Light boxes vs NO, expected −0.3)5.00.3−4.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)20.010.7−9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)14.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Light boxes vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Michael CarterRB ARIBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4)21.52.3−19.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2David MontgomeryRB DETFade (Light boxes vs CHI, expected −0.3)11.413.1+1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Chuba HubbardRB CARFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3)12.218.7+6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs ATL, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Light boxes vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.819.8+2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse