Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 22.0 | 29.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 9.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 3.9 | 8.4 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 7.4 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 7.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 3.0 | 2.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 6.5 | 1.3 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.5) | 15.6 | 25.8 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 24.2 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 24.5 | 18.0 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 24.1 | 0.0 | −24.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.3 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 26.9 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 16.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 10.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 8.1 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 12.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 6.4 | 12.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 18.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 28.0 | +20.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 11.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 1.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 20.4 | 18.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 9.9 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 1.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | 4.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 3.4 | 3.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 6.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | 1.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 11.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 8.5 | 1.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 16.4 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse