Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W12Nick ChubbRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)6.02.5−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.5)19.08.1−10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Diontae JohnsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.48.2+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)6.14.7−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jakob JohnsonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12J.J. TaylorRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)6.13.2−2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)13.58.5−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Davis MillsQB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.5)12.414.5+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)4.00.7−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)7.34.1−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)17.621.9+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.617.0+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)4.70.9−3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)3.90.0−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jared WayneWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tank DellWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cade StoverTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12British BrooksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.16.0+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jayden HigginsWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.213.8+8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jaylin NoelWR HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.81.9−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)3.14.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Woody MarksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)8.57.9−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyrod TaylorQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.919.5+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)12.78.5−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)11.810.4−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh ReynoldsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Andrew BeckRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.00.6−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler JohnsonWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)5.10.0−5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brandon SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kene NwangwuRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Justin FieldsQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.5)11.819.3+7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Irvin CharlesWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stone SmarttTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11John Metchie IIIWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.013.5+10.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jelani WoodsTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jeremy RuckertTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)2.16.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Breece HallRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)12.48.4−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11DeMario DouglasWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)9.26.1−3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jack WestoverTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.61.6−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Isaiah DavisRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)4.71.1−3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Drake MayeQB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.5)22.315.4−6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Adonai MitchellWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.32.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kyle WilliamsWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)2.40.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Efton Chism IIIWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3)3.70.0−3.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)17.132.3+15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Mason TaylorTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)8.37.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marcedes LewisTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Geno SmithQB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.5)11.74.4−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Raheem MostertRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.42.5+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)4.39.4+5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Evan EngramTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)8.03.2−4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)15.65.4−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trent SherfieldWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Alex BachmanWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)15.39.4−6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)3.31.2−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10DJ TurnerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Adam PrenticeRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.02.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3)2.10.0−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler BadieRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Tre TuckerWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)10.85.5−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Justin ShorterWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Shedrick JacksonWR LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 5 of 16 · 1,559 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse