Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)8.411.8+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Scott MillerWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.31.9+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Drew SampleTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)16.48.0−8.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)6.614.4+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tee HigginsWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)12.621.6+9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ben SkowronekWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.028.1+22.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)19.538.1+18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Kenny GainwellRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)11.33.5−7.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)15.419.8+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Connor HeywardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Brandon JohnsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)3.59.2+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Chase BrownRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)14.012.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)5.87.9+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Mitchell TinsleyWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)1.20.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Roman WilsonWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.63.7+2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Jermaine BurtonWR CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj BrooksRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Chris ManhertzTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6John RossWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)10.526.0+15.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)17.28.7−8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Khari BlasingameRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Devin SingletaryRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.21.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)3.09.5+6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.00.0−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)15.114.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6AJ DillonRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.0+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Jalen HurtsQB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.5)19.520.6+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kylen GransonTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6DeVonta SmithWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)14.48.9−5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Britain CoveyWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6John Metchie IIIWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jahan DotsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)4.82.7−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Daniel BellingerTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)12.720.4+7.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben VanSumerenRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier GipsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tank BigsbyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Cameron LatuTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Jalin HyattWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)2.54.7+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Johnny WilsonWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)14.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.40.6−6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Will ShipleyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Ainias SmithWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)7.24.7−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Darius CooperWR PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Beaux CollinsWR NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaxson DartQB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.5)12.023.6+11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)13.331.0+17.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Matthew StaffordQB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.5)18.125.6+7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyle JuszczykRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.15.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)16.813.8−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Chris ConleyWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Demarcus RobinsonWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)6.26.9+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)21.627.9+6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Trent TaylorWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kendrick BourneWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.424.2+15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)3.21.9−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Russell GageWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Malik TurnerWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)4.40.0−4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Brandon AiyukWR SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3)4.09.2+5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Luke FarrellTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)2.81.8−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mac JonesQB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.5)12.122.2+10.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake TongesTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)4.717.1+12.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 7 of 16 · 1,559 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse