Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 7.0 | 6.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 1.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 1.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 7.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | 1.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach HortonTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | 2.0 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 3.6 | 5.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 8.0 | 15.0 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 3.0 | 12.3 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2) | 1.3 | 3.2 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2) | 10.1 | 45.6 | +35.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ko KieftTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin CulpTE TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | 7.6 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 14.0 | 15.5 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 1.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 3.9 | 8.4 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 11.6 | 8.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 7.4 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 3.0 | 2.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 6.5 | 1.3 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 6.4 | 12.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 10.8 | 8.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 2.7 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 1.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.2) | 3.4 | 3.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | 1.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 8.5 | 1.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2) | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2) | 12.7 | 8.5 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jelani WoodsTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 2.1 | 6.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 8.3 | 7.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 8.0 | 3.2 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 3.3 | 1.2 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 10.9 | 16.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 9.9 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 9.0 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 165 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse