Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary FlamesMar 2, 2023

FinalThursday, Mar 2, 2023· Scotiabank Saddledome

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

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Calgary FlamesCGY

1

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	1	1	2		TOR	10	14	10	34
CGY	1	0	0	1		CGY	7	14	5	26

: TOR 53CGY 56
: TOR 4.14CGY 3.18
PP goals: TOR 0CGY 0
Hits: TOR 18CGY 20
Blocks: TOR 18CGY 8
PIM: TOR 4CGY 2
: TOR 56%CGY 44%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Toronto Maple Leafs edge Calgary Flames 2–1

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Calgary Flames 2–1 at CGY. Mitch Marner (TOR) led the scoring with 1G 0A. Erik Gustafsson (TOR) played 9:52, −10:03 down on his 19:55 season average over 69 games.

Usage
Erik Gustafsson (TOR) played 9:52, −10:03 down on his 19:55 season average over 69 games.Gustafsson
Luck
CGY scored 1 goal on 3.18 expected goals (56 attempts), well short of its chances.
Luck
TOR scored 2 goals on 4.14 expected goals (53 attempts), well short of its chances.
Usage
Morgan Rielly (TOR) played 18:10, −3:36 down on his 21:46 season average over 64 games.Rielly
Usage
Luke Schenn (TOR) played 10:42, −5:44 down on his 16:26 season average over 69 games.Schenn
Usage
Sam Lafferty (TOR) played 10:40, −4:00 down on his 14:40 season average over 69 games.Lafferty
Usage
Justin Holl (TOR) played 16:59, −3:18 down on his 20:17 season average over 79 games.Holl
Usage
Nikita Zadorov (CGY) played 15:08, −3:36 down on his 18:44 season average over 81 games.Zadorov

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)CGY attacks right (top on phones) →

CGY
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 109 of 109 attempts · CGY 56 · TOR 53

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

CGY
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

CGY pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 34% of the game, CGY 23%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

CGY

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	CGY
	50	59
	3.78	2.75
	3.60	2.64
	8	10
	5	5
	18	17
	+0.050	−0.051
	34%	23%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Bunting – Marner – Matthews
11:4338% CF
L2O'Reilly – Tavares – Nylander
4:3317% CF
L3Lafferty – Acciari – Kampf
3:2667% CF
D1Brodie – McCabe
16:0450% CF
D2Giordano – Holl
13:4544% CF
D3Rielly – Gustafsson
7:0250% CF

PP1Tavares – Rielly – Nylander – Marner – Matthews
3:14100% CF
PP2O'Reilly – Jarnkrok – Gustafsson – Kerfoot – Bunting
0:250% CF
PK1FAcciari – Kampf
0:49
PK2FO'Reilly – Kerfoot
0:39
PK1DBrodie – McCabe
1:38
PK2DGiordano – Schenn
0:29

Current TOR line combinations →

Calgary Flames

L1Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane
14:1055% CF
L2Kadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier
12:0250% CF
L3Toffoli – Lindholm – Dube
10:1775% CF
L4Lewis – Lucic – Duehr
7:2336% CF
D1Weegar – Andersson
15:5071% CF
D2Tanev – Hanifin
14:5848% CF
D3Zadorov – Gilbert
9:5841% CF

PP1Kadri – Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm – Andersson
2:37100% CF
PP2Backlund – Mangiapane – Hanifin – Dube – Pelletier
1:080% CF
PK1FBacklund – Lindholm
1:49
PK2FLewis – Coleman
1:08
PK1DTanev – Hanifin
1:54
PK2DWeegar – Andersson
0:56

Current CGY line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

2:32
CGYBlake ColemanSHwrist0.14 xG
TOR: O'Reilly, Jarnkrok, Gustafsson, Kerfoot, BuntingCGY: Tanev, Coleman, Weegar, Lindholm
TOR 0 – 1 CGY

2nd period

7:36
TORMitch Marner (Auston Matthews, David Kampf)wrist0.14 xG
TOR: Giordano, Holl, Bunting, Marner, MatthewsCGY: Lewis, Lucic, Weegar, Andersson, Duehr
TOR 1 – 1 CGY

3rd period

2:20
TORCalle Jarnkrok (Morgan Rielly, William Nylander)tip-in0.04 xG
TOR: Schenn, Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, NylanderCGY: Kadri, Huberdeau, Zadorov, Gilbert, Pelletier
TOR 2 – 1 CGY

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mitch Marner R	L1	1	0	1	+1	8	0.98	0	0	2	22:54	—	—	42	59
Auston Matthews C	L1	0	1	1	+1	8	0.75	0	0	0	22:50	—	—	42	61
Michael Bunting L	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	14:26	—	—	41	55
Ryan O'Reilly C	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.21	0	2	0	19:23	—	—	46	52
William Nylander R	L2	0	1	1	+1	2	0.26	0	0	0	19:19	—	—	42	56
John Tavares C	L2	0	0	0	+1	4	0.84	0	0	0	15:55	—	—	60	75
David Kampf C	L3	0	1	1	0	1	0.10	0	0	0	15:23	—	—	44	43
Noel Acciari C	L3	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	0	11:21	—	—	56	58
Sam Lafferty C	L3	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	0	10:40	—	—	50	58
TJ Brodie D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	4	0	23:45	—	—	47	68
Jake McCabe D	D1	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	0	0	20:29	—	—	55	71
Justin Holl D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	2	3	2	16:59	—	—	43	60
Mark Giordano D	D2	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	2	0	16:46	—	—	50	61
Morgan Rielly D	D3	0	1	1	+1	1	0.36	0	2	0	18:10	—	—	43	50
Erik Gustafsson D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	9:52	—	—	46	47
Alexander Kerfoot C	—	0	0	0	-1	1	0.18	0	1	0	15:25	—	—	48	51
Calle Jarnkrok C	—	1	0	1	0	2	0.18	1	0	0	11:41	—	—	55	63
Luke Schenn D	—	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	2	0	10:42	—	—	37	54

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Joseph Woll(start)	W	26	25	1	.962	3.18	60:00

Calgary Flames

CGY skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Mikael Backlund C	L1	0	0	0	0	5	0.67	1	2	0	20:10	—	—	50	44
Andrew Mangiapane L	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	0	0	0	18:40	—	—	53	45
Blake Coleman L	L1	1	0	1	+1	5	0.74	0	0	0	17:55	—	—	49	42
Nazem Kadri C	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	1	0	16:47	—	—	50	50
Jonathan Huberdeau L	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.05	1	0	0	15:46	—	—	52	52
Jakob Pelletier L	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	0	0	0	14:52	—	—	48	47
Elias Lindholm C	L3	0	0	0	+1	1	0.36	0	0	0	17:13	—	—	70	28
Tyler Toffoli C	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	0	0	15:26	—	—	79	31
Dillon Dube C	L3	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	0	0	14:19	—	—	72	24
Trevor Lewis C	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.20	1	1	0	11:04	—	—	47	39
Walker Duehr R	L4	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	9:15	—	—	33	35
Milan Lucic L	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	0	8:51	—	—	42	40
Rasmus Andersson D	D1	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	0	0	2	23:33	—	—	71	55
MacKenzie Weegar D	D1	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	3	0	0	21:41	—	—	71	52
Noah Hanifin D	D2	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	0	0	24:29	—	—	43	29
Chris Tanev D	D2	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	3	0	19:22	—	—	45	32
Nikita Zadorov D	D3	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	3	0	0	15:08	—	—	52	52
Dennis Gilbert D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	1	0	12:21	—	—	36	36

CGY goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Jacob Markstrom(start)	L	34	32	2	.941	4.14	59:08

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.