Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vegas Golden KnightsDec 31, 2017

FinalSunday, Dec 31, 2017· T-Mobile Arena

away

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

3

@

home

Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

6

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
TOR	0	2	1	3		TOR	4	10	9	23
VGK	3	1	2	6		VGK	11	10	10	31

: TOR 59VGK 55
: TOR 2.68VGK 3.30
PP goals: TOR 0VGK 0
Hits: TOR 21VGK 20
Blocks: TOR 15VGK 18
PIM: TOR 6VGK 4
: TOR 54%VGK 46%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Vegas Golden Knights beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6–3

Vegas Golden Knights beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6–3 at home. William Karlsson (VGK) led the scoring with 3G 1A. VGK scored 6 goals on 3.30 expected goals (55 attempts), finishing well above its chances.

Points
William Karlsson had a hat trick and an assist (4 points) on 3 shots in 17:23.Karlsson
Points
Auston Matthews had two goals (2 points) on 3 shots in 18:38.Matthews
Points
Jonathan Marchessault had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 5 shots in 15:19.Marchessault
Points
Reilly Smith had 2 assists (2 points) on 2 shots in 17:27.Smith
Luck
VGK scored 6 goals on 3.30 expected goals (55 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
Usage
Brendan Leipsic (VGK) played 9:38, −3:34 down on his 13:12 season average over 57 games.Leipsic
PP1
TOR's PP1 (Marleau, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Rielly and Marner) went scoreless in 3:23 of 5v4 time with 5 attempts.Marleau van Riemsdyk Bozak Rielly Marner
PP1
VGK's PP1 (Neal, Perron, Haula, Marchessault and Theodore) went scoreless in 3:30 of 5v4 time with 3 attempts.Neal Perron Haula Marchessault Theodore

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← TOR attacks left (bottom on phones)VGK attacks right (top on phones) →

VGK
TOR
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 114 of 114 attempts · VGK 55 · TOR 59

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

VGK
TOR
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

VGK pressure
TOR pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: TOR 25% of the game, VGK 27%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

VGK

TOR

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	TOR	VGK
	49	56
	1.73	2.42
	1.65	2.35
	12	10
	1	6
	22	25
	+0.037	−0.038
	25%	27%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Toronto Maple Leafs

L1Hyman – Nylander – Matthews
12:4152% CF
L2van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner
10:1947% CF
L3Marleau – Komarov – Brown
6:4550% CF
L4Moore – Martin – Leivo
5:5333% CF
D1Hainsey – Rielly
12:1063% CF
D2Gardiner – Marincin
9:0030% CF
D3Polak – Borgman
8:2520% CF

PP1Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Rielly – Marner
3:2383% CF
PP2Komarov – Gardiner – Leivo – Nylander – Matthews
2:1080% CF
PK1FMoore – Hyman
2:01
PK2FKomarov – Brown
1:15
PK1DHainsey – Polak
2:45
PK2DGardiner – Rielly
0:45

Current TOR line combinations →

Vegas Golden Knights

L1Neal – Perron – Haula
12:1843% CF
L2Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault
11:1756% CF
L3Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek
8:5371% CF
L4Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch
7:1029% CF
D1McNabb – Schmidt
16:0548% CF
D2Engelland – Theodore
13:2355% CF
D3Merrill – Miller
12:2852% CF

PP1Neal – Perron – Haula – Marchessault – Theodore
3:3075% CF
PP2Smith – Karlsson – Miller – Schmidt – Tuch
2:280% CF
PK1FBellemare – Nosek
2:22
PK2FSmith – Karlsson
1:52
PK1DEngelland – McNabb
2:29
PK2DMiller – Theodore
1:22

Current VGK line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

2:24
VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare (Alex Tuch)backhand0.09 xG
TOR: Moore, Gardiner, Martin, Marincin, LeivoVGK: McNabb, Leipsic, Schmidt, Bellemare, Tuch
TOR 0 – 1 VGK
4:17
VGKWilliam Karlsson (Reilly Smith, Deryk Engelland)slap0.13 xG
TOR: Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Brown, BorgmanVGK: Engelland, Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault, Theodore
TOR 0 – 2 VGK
13:24
VGKErik Haula (David Perron, Colin Miller)snap0.01 xG
TOR: Marleau, Hainsey, Komarov, Rielly, BrownVGK: Neal, Perron, Haula, Merrill, Miller
TOR 0 – 3 VGK

2nd period

5:07
TORPatrick Marleau (Connor Brown, Leo Komarov)wrist0.15 xG
TOR: Marleau, Hainsey, Komarov, Rielly, BrownVGK: Engelland, Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault, Theodore
TOR 1 – 3 VGK
8:26
VGKWilliam Karlsson (Jonathan Marchessault)wrist0.14 xG
TOR: van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Marincin, MarnerVGK: Smith, Merrill, Karlsson, Miller, Marchessault
TOR 1 – 4 VGK
19:12
TORAuston Matthews (Zach Hyman)wrist0.07 xG
TOR: Gardiner, Hyman, Nylander, Matthews, BorgmanVGK: Engelland, McNabb, Lindberg, Bellemare, Nosek
TOR 2 – 4 VGK

3rd period

0:27
TORAuston Matthews (Morgan Rielly, William Nylander)backhand0.08 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Nylander, MatthewsVGK: McNabb, Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault, Schmidt
TOR 3 – 4 VGK
6:11
VGKJonathan Marchessault (William Karlsson, Shea Theodore)wrist0.17 xG
TOR: Marleau, Polak, Komarov, Brown, BorgmanVGK: Engelland, Smith, Karlsson, Marchessault, Theodore
TOR 3 – 5 VGK
18:24
VGKWilliam KarlssonEN (Reilly Smith, Brayden McNabb)backhand0.84 xG
TOR: Hainsey, Hyman, Rielly, Brown, Nylander, MatthewsVGK: McNabb, Smith, Karlsson, Schmidt, Bellemare
TOR 3 – 6 VGK

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Toronto Maple Leafs

TOR skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Zach Hyman L	L1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.37	1	0	0	19:20	—	—	53	53
William Nylander R	L1	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	1	0	18:52	—	—	55	42
Auston Matthews C	L1	2	0	2	+1	3	0.25	0	0	0	18:38	—	—	52	41
Mitch Marner R	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.13	0	0	0	17:40	—	—	48	39
James van Riemsdyk L	L2	0	0	0	-1	1	0.56	1	1	0	16:12	—	—	48	30
Tyler Bozak C	L2	0	0	0	-1	3	0.12	4	0	0	15:53	—	—	52	37
Patrick Marleau C	L3	1	0	1	-2	4	0.19	3	1	0	16:49	—	—	48	46
Connor Brown R	L3	0	1	1	-3	1	0.19	0	1	0	14:28	—	—	48	51
Leo Komarov R	L3	0	1	1	-2	0	0.00	2	0	0	13:36	—	—	43	49
Dominic Moore C	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	1	0	11:41	—	—	38	43
Josh Leivo L	L4	0	0	0	-1	1	0.48	0	0	0	9:06	—	—	33	35
Matt Martin L	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.10	5	0	0	7:24	—	—	27	23
Morgan Rielly D	D1	0	1	1	0	4	0.06	0	1	0	22:58	—	—	61	75
Ron Hainsey D	D1	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	2	0	22:38	—	—	59	71
Jake Gardiner D	D2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.05	0	2	2	23:22	—	—	48	35
Martin Marincin D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.03	0	3	2	15:26	—	—	40	21
Roman Polak D	D3	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	2	2	2	16:59	—	—	27	16
Andreas Borgman D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	3	0	0	13:51	—	—	27	10

TOR goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Frederik Andersen(start)	L	30	25	5	.833	2.46	59:07

Vegas Golden Knights

VGK skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
David Perron L	L1	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	18:52	—	—	39	36
James Neal L	L1	0	0	0	+1	2	0.13	1	0	0	17:51	—	—	44	34
Erik Haula L	L1	1	0	1	+1	1	0.03	0	0	0	17:11	—	—	44	33
Reilly Smith R	L2	0	2	2	+2	2	0.17	0	0	0	17:27	—	—	62	65
William Karlsson C	L2	3	1	4	+2	3	1.11	0	0	0	17:23	—	—	57	65
Jonathan Marchessault R	L2	1	1	2	+1	5	0.59	2	0	0	15:19	—	—	56	64
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L	L3	1	0	1	+1	4	0.28	0	1	0	14:08	—	—	73	72
Tomas Nosek L	L3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.18	1	0	0	12:50	—	—	65	57
Oscar Lindberg L	L3	0	0	0	-1	3	0.04	1	0	0	11:29	—	—	68	65
Cody Eakin C	L4	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	1	0	12:53	—	—	26	65
Alex Tuch R	L4	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	1	1	0	12:18	—	—	48	74
Brendan Leipsic L	L4	0	0	0	+1	1	0.31	2	1	0	9:38	—	—	35	69
Nate Schmidt D	D1	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	5	2	23:16	—	—	54	64
Brayden McNabb D	D1	0	1	1	0	1	0.03	4	4	2	21:59	—	—	49	60
Deryk Engelland D	D2	0	1	1	0	2	0.20	2	1	0	20:07	—	—	57	49
Shea Theodore D	D2	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	19:49	—	—	55	52
Colin Miller D	D3	0	1	1	+2	1	0.11	4	2	0	18:11	—	—	59	62
Jon Merrill D	D3	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	1	1	0	13:30	—	—	50	58

VGK goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Malcolm Subban(start)	W	23	20	3	.870	2.68	59:54

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.