Nashville Predators vs. Buffalo SabresMar 21, 2023

FinalTuesday, Mar 21, 2023· KeyBank Center

away

Nashville PredatorsNSH

7

@

home

Buffalo SabresBUF

3

Goals	1	2	3	T		Shots	1	2	3	T
NSH	2	4	1	7		NSH	12	8	7	27
BUF	0	2	1	3		BUF	5	14	12	31

: NSH 49BUF 56
: NSH 4.26BUF 3.67
PP goals: NSH 0BUF 1
Hits: NSH 16BUF 19
Blocks: NSH 8BUF 9
PIM: NSH 13BUF 11
: NSH 56%BUF 44%

Fantasy takeaways

Generated from the play-by-play, shifts and season context. No opinions, just what changed.

Nashville Predators rout Buffalo Sabres 7–3

Nashville Predators beat Buffalo Sabres 7–3 at BUF. Luke Evangelista (NSH) led the scoring with 2G 2A. BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Olofsson, Thompson and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 8 attempts in 3:46 together.

Points
Luke Evangelista had two goals and 2 assists (4 points) on 7 shots in 15:49.Evangelista
Points
Matt Duchene had two goals and an assist (3 points) on 3 shots in 14:35.Duchene
Points
Philip Tomasino had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 6 shots in 13:18.Tomasino
Points
Ryan McDonagh had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 1 shot in 17:08.McDonagh
Points
Tommy Novak had a goal and an assist (2 points) on 4 shots in 15:30.Novak
PP1
BUF's first power-play unit (Skinner, Tuch, Olofsson, Thompson and Dahlin) scored 1 power-play goal on 8 attempts in 3:46 together.Skinner Tuch Olofsson Thompson Dahlin
Luck
NSH scored 7 goals on 4.26 expected goals (49 attempts), finishing well above its chances.
Usage
Ryan McDonagh (NSH) played 17:08, −4:28 down on his 21:36 season average over 70 games.McDonagh

Shot map

Both teams on one rink, filtered by strength and period.

Shot map

Every attempt, sized by expected goals. Goals are rings, shots on goal dots, misses hollow, blocks crosses.

Strength

Period

Team

← NSH attacks left (bottom on phones)BUF attacks right (top on phones) →

BUF
NSH
Goal
Shot on goal
Missed
Blocked

Showing 105 of 105 attempts · BUF 56 · NSH 49

Game flow

Cumulative expected goals and shot attempts, with power plays shaded and goals marked.

Cumulative shot attempts

BUF
NSH
Goal
Power play (shaded)

Pressure Index

BUF pressure
NSH pressure
Goal
Control (|PI| > 0.25)

: descriptive only, the team with more pressure scored the next goal about half the time. In control: NSH 35% of the game, BUF 31%.

Shift chart

Every shift, grouped by line and pair; bars are coloured by strength state. Click a player to highlight.

Shifts

BUF

NSH

goals / penalties

Even strength
Power play
Penalty kill
Goal
Penalty

Sequence card

5-on-5 possession-chain numbers from the sequence engine (Draw Equity and control cover all situations).

Sequence card
Stat	NSH	BUF
	44	53
	2.98	3.22
	2.81	2.98
	16	13
	6	8
	18	14
	+0.048	−0.048
	35%	31%

Definitions: sequence xG, transition attempts, Draw Equity, control and the Pressure Index.

Lines used

Detected from who actually shared the ice, with time together. Percentages are the unit's share of shot attempts.

Nashville Predators

L1Sissons – Trenin – Smith
10:0843% CF
L2Jankowski – Asplund – Afanasyev
8:3833% CF
L3Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista
8:0669% CF
L4Duchene – Glass – Tomasino
7:3347% CF
D1Lauzon – Foote
14:4440% CF
D2Barrie – Gross
13:2732% CF
D3McDonagh – Fabbro
13:0570% CF

PP1Duchene – Barrie – Novak – Glass – Evangelista
3:3688% CF
PP2Sissons – Trenin – Sherwood – Gross – Tomasino
1:55100% CF
PK1FSissons – Smith
2:28
PK2FTrenin – Glass
1:13
PK1DMcDonagh – Fabbro
1:41
PK2DLauzon – Foote
1:25

Current NSH line combinations →

Buffalo Sabres

L1Cozens – Quinn – Peterka
10:1961% CF
L2Olofsson – Jost – Mittelstadt
10:0469% CF
L3Skinner – Tuch – Thompson
8:4645% CF
L4Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs
7:2273% CF
D1Jokiharju – Dahlin
15:0463% CF
D2Lyubushkin – Power
9:3150% CF
D3Clague – Stillman
5:4150% CF

PP1Skinner – Tuch – Olofsson – Thompson – Dahlin
3:46100% CF
PP2Mittelstadt – Cozens – Quinn – Peterka – Power
2:01100% CF
PK1FGirgensons – Cozens
1:10
PK2FTuch – Quinn
0:35
PK1DLyubushkin – Power
2:10
PK2DJokiharju – Dahlin
0:56

Current BUF line combinations →

Scoring summary

Every goal with the skaters on the ice for it.

1st period

11:45
NSHPhilip Tomasino (Matt Duchene)snap0.18 xG
NSH: Duchene, Lauzon, Foote, Glass, TomasinoBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Jokiharju, Dahlin
NSH 1 – 0 BUF
18:43
NSHMatt Duchene (Philip Tomasino, Jeremy Lauzon)snap0.06 xG
NSH: Duchene, Lauzon, Foote, Glass, TomasinoBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Thompson, Lyubushkin, Power
NSH 2 – 0 BUF

2nd period

3:36
BUFDylan Cozens (JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn)backhand0.21 xG
NSH: Barrie, Jankowski, Sissons, Gross, AfanasyevBUF: Stillman, Mittelstadt, Jokiharju, Cozens, Peterka
NSH 2 – 1 BUF
4:00
NSHTommy Novak (Luke Evangelista, Tyson Barrie)snap0.22 xG
NSH: Barrie, Novak, Sherwood, Gross, EvangelistaBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Stillman, Jokiharju, Krebs
NSH 3 – 1 BUF
9:21
NSHLuke Evangelista (Tommy Novak, Juuse Saros)snap0.08 xG
NSH: Novak, Lauzon, Foote, Sherwood, EvangelistaBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Clague, Thompson, Jokiharju
NSH 4 – 1 BUF
10:01
NSHLuke Evangelista (Kiefer Sherwood)backhand0.18 xG
NSH: Novak, Lauzon, Foote, Sherwood, EvangelistaBUF: Okposo, Girgensons, Stillman, Dahlin, Cozens
NSH 5 – 1 BUF
15:52
NSHRyan McDonagh (Luke Evangelista)snap0.08 xG
NSH: McDonagh, Novak, Fabbro, Sherwood, EvangelistaBUF: Olofsson, Clague, Jost, Stillman, Mittelstadt
NSH 6 – 1 BUF
17:17
BUFTage ThompsonPP (Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson)slap0.15 xG
NSH: McDonagh, Lauzon, SmithBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Olofsson, Thompson, Dahlin
NSH 6 – 2 BUF

3rd period

7:45
BUFJeff Skinner (Alex Tuch)tip-in0.07 xG
NSH: Novak, Lauzon, Asplund, Foote, AfanasyevBUF: Skinner, Tuch, Stillman, Thompson, Lyubushkin
NSH 6 – 3 BUF
17:37
NSHMatt DucheneEN (Ryan McDonagh)wrist0.51 xG
NSH: McDonagh, Duchene, Sissons, Asplund, FabbroBUF: Okposo, Tuch, Olofsson, Jost, Mittelstadt, Power
NSH 7 – 3 BUF

Box score

Skaters grouped by the line they played on; CF% is the 5v5 share of shot attempts while on the ice.

Nashville Predators

NSH skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Yakov Trenin C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.37	2	0	0	18:11	—	—	47	57
Colton Sissons C	L1	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	2	1	2	17:45	—	—	43	35
Cole Smith R	L1	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	4	0	0	17:13	—	—	45	56
Mark Jankowski L	L2	0	0	0	-1	0	0.06	1	0	2	14:10	—	—	33	23
Egor Afanasyev L	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	3	0	0	12:51	—	—	33	14
Rasmus Asplund C	L2	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	0	0	11:59	—	—	33	25
Luke Evangelista R	L3	2	2	4	+4	7	0.82	0	1	0	15:49	—	—	60	73
Tommy Novak C	L3	1	1	2	+3	4	0.38	0	1	0	15:30	—	—	57	58
Kiefer Sherwood L	L3	0	1	1	+4	0	0.00	0	0	5	12:08	—	—	72	74
Cody Glass C	L4	0	0	0	+2	1	0.10	0	0	0	15:49	—	—	41	43
Matt Duchene C	L4	2	1	3	+3	3	1.37	1	0	0	14:35	—	—	46	43
Philip Tomasino R	L4	1	1	2	+2	6	0.54	0	0	0	13:18	—	—	46	46
Jeremy Lauzon D	D1	0	1	1	+3	0	0.10	1	0	0	20:11	—	—	42	50
Cal Foote D	D1	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	0	2	0	18:15	—	—	39	45
Tyson Barrie D	D2	0	1	1	0	1	0.07	0	1	0	19:33	—	—	33	25
Jordan Gross D	D2	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	19:04	—	—	35	23
Dante Fabbro D	D3	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	1	2	20:02	—	—	64	76
Ryan McDonagh D	D3	1	1	2	+2	1	0.08	0	1	2	17:08	—	—	70	79

NSH goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Juuse Saros(start)	W	31	28	3	.903	3.67	59:58

Buffalo Sabres

BUF skaters
Skater	Line	G	A	P	+/-			Hits	Blk	PIM		PP	SH
Dylan Cozens C	L1	1	0	1	0	2	0.38	0	0	0	18:42	—	—	56	56
Jack Quinn R	L1	0	1	1	0	2	0.11	0	0	0	17:55	—	—	52	44
JJ Peterka R	L1	0	1	1	+1	3	0.29	0	0	0	15:44	—	—	58	60
Casey Mittelstadt C	L2	0	0	0	-1	2	0.47	0	0	0	16:18	—	—	68	71
Victor Olofsson L	L2	0	1	1	-2	2	0.17	0	0	0	15:48	—	—	65	72
Tyson Jost C	L2	0	0	0	-2	1	0.13	1	0	0	14:52	—	—	67	64
Alex Tuch R	L3	0	1	1	-3	2	0.23	0	1	0	17:31	—	—	43	44
Jeff Skinner L	L3	1	0	1	-2	3	0.82	0	0	0	14:56	—	—	36	40
Tage Thompson C	L3	1	0	1	-2	3	0.41	3	1	7	14:50	—	—	38	39
Peyton Krebs C	L4	0	0	0	-1	2	0.28	4	1	0	12:27	—	—	63	58
Kyle Okposo R	L4	0	0	0	-3	1	0.05	1	0	0	11:17	—	—	59	49
Zemgus Girgensons C	L4	0	0	0	-2	1	0.11	0	0	0	10:57	—	—	67	33
Rasmus Dahlin D	D1	0	1	1	-2	2	0.06	2	2	0	25:44	—	—	53	48
Henri Jokiharju D	D1	0	0	0	-2	1	0.04	0	0	2	20:13	—	—	61	53
Owen Power D	D2	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	1	0	21:58	—	—	48	52
Ilya Lyubushkin D	D2	0	0	0	0	3	0.07	2	3	0	18:48	—	—	59	63
Kale Clague D	D3	0	0	0	-2	1	0.03	1	0	0	13:28	—	—	44	40
Riley Stillman D	D3	0	0	0	-1	0	0.04	5	0	0	13:17	—	—	55	46

BUF goalies
Goalie	Dec	SA	SV	GA			TOI
Craig Anderson(start)	L	20	14	6	.700	2.23	35:52
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	—	6	6	0	.1000	1.52	23:23

More

Methodology

Shot locations come from the NHL play-by-play, normalised so each shooter attacks the same way, then flipped so the home team attacks right. On-ice stats and lines come from the shift charts: a unit is the exact set of skaters sharing the ice, and CF% is the share of all shot attempts while they were out. Head-to-head cells are 5v5 time against each opponent. Expected goals and the Pressure Index appear as their models are released.