Florida Panthers · Defenseman · #5Aaron Ekblad Points: Last 10 Games & Hit Rate
Aaron Ekblad went over 0.5 points in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%) and in 3 of 7 this season (43%).
Last posted line: 0.5 points (Oct 17)
- Market chance (no vig)
- 37%
- Best over / under
- +150 BetMGM / -210 BetMGM
- Our projection (locked)
- 29%(0.35 PTS)
- Over value at lock price
- −26.5%
Consensus of 1 US book. The best over and under together carry a 7.7% margin. Our projection was locked about an hour before puck drop and is graded in the ledger; value uses the best prices at the lock. Value is our projection's expected return per unit on the over (unders are not shown: ice-time misses make most of our under edges model error). It is unproven: the books have been more accurate than our model on points.
Hit rate over 0.5 points
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 0.40 |
| This season | 7 | 3 | 43% | 0.43 |
| 2025-26 | 72 | 19 | 26% | 0.36 |
Last 7 games
- 0underOct 17 vs SEA
- 1overOct 15 vs VAN
- 0underOct 13 @ CBJ
- 1overOct 12 @ BUF
- 0underOct 10 vs MIN
- 1overOct 1 @ SJS
- 0underSep 29 @ CAR
Home, road and vs OTT
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 40 | 9 | 23% | 0.28 |
| Road | 39 | 13 | 33% | 0.46 |
| vs OTT | 3 | 2 | 67% | 1.33 |
2026-27 and 2025-26 combined. A few games against one team is noise.
At other lines
| Line | Last 7 | This season | How often (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 43% | 43% | 0: 4 · 1: 3 · 2+: 0 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Our model against the market
Across 1,436 graded points lines since Oct 12, the market has been more accurate than our projection (log loss 0.6531 vs 0.6425; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 222 bets, −15.9%.
On Aaron Ekblad's own 4 graded points lines, the over hit 2 times; our projection averaged 32% for the over and the market 36%. That is far too few lines to say anything about one player.
| Date | Line | Model | Market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | 0.5 | 29% | 37% | 0 | under |
| Oct 15 | 0.5 | 36% | 41% | 1 | over |
| Oct 13 | 0.5 | 30% | 31% | 0 | under |
| Oct 12 | 0.5 | 33% | 35% | 1 | over |
Every modelled line is locked about an hour before puck drop and never edited (live tests).
Do hit rates beat the market?
We tested 3,217 points lines from 196 random 2025-26 games (odds 15 minutes before puck drop, every player with 10+ earlier games), fitting on games before January 1 and scoring the rest. The last-10 hit rate on its own scored 0.730 against the market's 0.670 (log loss, lower is better). Adding it to the market price changed the score by +0.0024: nothing useful.
Books already price streaks: players who went over in 8+ of their last 10 were priced at 58% on average and went over 54% of the time (n 208). Betting the over in that spot at the best price returned −11.8% on 59 bets (95% range −31.2% to +7.6%). No hit-rate rule we tried cleared zero in both halves of the season with a range above zero.
Do points hit rates predict the next game?
A hit rate is how often Aaron Ekblad cleared a line in a window of games: over 0.5 points in his last 5, 10 or 20 games and this season. Pushes (exactly on a whole-number line) are left out. The table also shows the same line at home, on the road and against tonight's opponent.
Recent hit rates are a weak signal. In our 3,217-line test on points props from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate alone scored worse than the market's no-vig price on the second half of the season (log loss 0.730 vs 0.670), and adding it to the market changed the score by +0.0024. Players who went over in 8 or more of their last 10 games were already priced higher by the books.
Read hit rates as context for the role a player has now, not as a bet signal. The model and market comparison below shows the price after the margin and how our projections have done against the books.
Frequently asked questions
How often does Aaron Ekblad go over 0.5 points?
Aaron Ekblad went over 0.5 points in 2 of his last 5 games and 3 of 7 this season (43%).
Has the Edgehalla model beaten the market on points?
Across 1,436 graded points lines since Oct 12, the market has been more accurate than our projection (log loss 0.6531 vs 0.6425; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 222 bets, −15.9%.
Do last-10 hit rates beat the sportsbooks?
Not in our test: on 3,217 points lines from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate scored worse than the market's no-vig price on held-out games (log loss 0.730 vs 0.670).