Strength of schedule
NHL Strength of Schedule Week 4 2026-27
Detroit Red Wings has the easiest schedule in week 4 (Oct 19-25): +0.34 standings points against an average slate over 3 games (opponents' points % .466). Tampa Bay Lightning has the hardest (−0.48, opponents .617).
Easiest and hardest schedules
Easiest
Detroit Red Wings3 GP · +0.34
Ottawa Senators3 GP · +0.28
Montreal Canadiens3 GP · +0.23
Minnesota Wild4 GP · +0.19
Hardest
Tampa Bay Lightning3 GP · −0.48
San Jose Sharks4 GP · −0.41
Nashville Predators3 GP · −0.27
Winnipeg Jets3 GP · −0.19
Every team
| # | Team | GP | H/R | Edge | Opp P% | Opp xGF% | B2B | Rest +/− | Travel km | Off-night |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Wings | 3 | 0/3 | +0.34 | .466 | 45.8 | 0 | 0/0 | 3,978 | 0 |
| 2 | Senators | 3 | 3/0 | +0.28 | .548 | 49.5 | 1 | 0/1 | 603 | 1 |
| 3 | Canadiens | 3 | 1/2 | +0.23 | .511 | 46.1 | 0 | 1/2 | 2,353 | 2 |
| 4 | Wild | 4 | 0/4 | +0.19 | .503 | 47.0 | 1 | 0/3 | 2,938 | 1 |
| 5 |  Devils | 3 | 3/0 | +0.17 | .566 | 51.2 | 0 | 1/0 | 318 | 0 |
| 6 |  Stars | 3 | 3/0 | +0.14 | .574 | 49.1 | 0 | 0/0 | 1,292 | 1 |
| 7 |  Capitals | 2 | 2/0 | +0.13 | .563 | 50.9 | 0 | 1/0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Blue Jackets | 2 | 2/0 | +0.11 | .568 | 50.1 | 0 | 2/0 | 995 | 0 |
| 9 |  Hurricanes | 3 | 0/3 | +0.09 | .513 | 48.2 | 0 | 0/1 | 3,916 | 0 |
| 10 |  Islanders | 3 | 2/1 | +0.08 | .561 | 50.0 | 0 | 1/0 | 2,797 | 1 |
| 11 |  Blackhawks | 2 | 2/0 | +0.07 | .580 | 51.5 | 0 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 |  Penguins | 3 | 2/1 | +0.07 | .563 | 51.3 | 0 | 1/0 | 3,271 | 1 |
| 13 |  Sabres | 2 | 1/1 | +0.06 | .548 | 47.8 | 0 | 1/1 | 983 | 1 |
| 14 |  Kraken | 3 | 3/0 | +0.06 | .588 | 51.4 | 0 | 0/1 | 4,358 | 0 |
| 15 |  Maple Leafs | 4 | 2/2 | +0.05 | .558 | 49.4 | 1 | 0/2 | 3,721 | 1 |
| 16 |  Flames | 2 | 2/0 | +0.04 | .587 | 50.1 | 0 | 1/0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Bruins | 3 | 2/1 | +0.02 | .572 | 48.4 | 0 | 0/1 | 4,486 | 0 |
| 18 |  Mammoth | 3 | 2/1 | +0.02 | .571 | 51.0 | 0 | 2/0 | 2,254 | 1 |
| 19 |  Rangers | 3 | 1/2 | ±0.00 | .553 | 48.8 | 0 | 1/1 | 1,646 | 1 |
| 20 |  Panthers | 3 | 0/3 | −0.02 | .533 | 49.0 | 1 | 1/1 | 3,460 | 2 |
| 21 |  Oilers | 3 | 3/0 | −0.03 | .603 | 51.0 | 0 | 1/0 | 1,426 | 0 |
| 22 |  Blues | 3 | 3/0 | −0.04 | .605 | 52.4 | 0 | 0/0 | 408 | 0 |
| 23 |  Golden Knights | 3 | 1/2 | −0.08 | .566 | 51.9 | 0 | 0/1 | 2,855 | 0 |
| 24 |  Canucks | 3 | 3/0 | −0.09 | .614 | 52.0 | 0 | 2/0 | 4,180 | 1 |
| 25 |  Ducks | 4 | 0/4 | −0.12 | .546 | 49.4 | 1 | 1/2 | 4,104 | 1 |
| 26 |  Avalanche | 4 | 1/3 | −0.12 | .563 | 50.0 | 1 | 2/1 | 6,912 | 3 |
| 27 |  Flyers | 3 | 2/1 | −0.13 | .598 | 51.7 | 0 | 1/2 | 906 | 2 |
| 28 |  Kings | 3 | 0/3 | −0.17 | .561 | 51.0 | 0 | 0/0 | 4,080 | 0 |
| 29 | Jets | 3 | 1/2 | −0.19 | .588 | 50.9 | 0 | 1/0 | 4,151 | 1 |
| 30 | Predators | 3 | 1/2 | −0.27 | .601 | 52.0 | 1 | 1/1 | 3,050 | 1 |
| 31 | Sharks | 4 | 0/4 | −0.41 | .586 | 49.7 | 1 | 1/1 | 1,529 | 1 |
| 32 | Lightning | 3 | 0/3 | −0.48 | .617 | 54.3 | 1 | 0/1 | 4,774 | 1 |
Edge: standings points against an average slate of the same length (+ = easier); the 32 teams sum to zero. Opp P% and xGF%: opponents' ratings blended with last season. Rest +/−: games with more / less rest than the opponent.
How much does schedule matter?
Not much over a season, more over a week. With perfect hindsight about every opponent, a normal 82-game NHL schedule moved a team by at most about 2.0 standings points from an average one (2018-19 to 2025-26; the 2020-21 divisional season was the exception at a standard deviation of 1.9).
Forecasting test: we trained on 2018-19 to 2022-23 and tested on 2023-24 to 2025-26 (96 team-seasons). At game 41, adding the remaining schedule to a team's own blended rating left the error of its rest-of-season points % unchanged (0.0810 without, 0.0810 with). A one-standard-deviation tougher remaining schedule is worth about 0.7 standings points over 41 games. That is noise next to a team's own quality, so we do not treat season SOS as a betting or futures edge.
Single games are different: a team facing an opponent one standard deviation weaker in goals against scores about 0.23 more goals that night (holdout 2023-24 to 2025-26, 7,872 team-games). Game lines already price the opponent, so this helps fantasy lineups, not bets.
How strength of schedule is measured
For every game we take the opponent's rating and ask how many standings points an average NHL team would expect against it, at that venue. Adding those up over a window and comparing with an average slate of the same length gives the schedule edge in standings points: positive means easier. The opponent rating is points %, blended with last season early in the year. Opponent xGF%, goals and shots per game are shown beside it.
Opponent ratings this early carry a lot of last season: on Oct 21 the typical team has played 3 games, so its rating is 7% this season and the rest last season. Over a full season even perfect knowledge of every opponent moves a team only about ±2 standings points.
For fantasy, short windows matter most: the next 10 days and the fantasy week, where off-nights, back-to-backs and weak opponents stack up. For standings or futures, treat the season numbers as a tiebreaker, not a forecast.
Points allowed by position and the goalie view
The position views rank each schedule by what its opponents give up per game: points scored by centres, wingers or defencemen against them, or shots on goal allowed. The goalie view flips it: the opponents' own goals and shots per game, so a lower number is a softer slate for your goalie. Each opponent number is shrunk toward last season like the main rating.
Shots allowed is the steadiest team trait here (split-half correlation 0.84 in 2025-26). Total points allowed repeats moderately. Which position those points go to does not: the defencemen's share of points allowed had a split-half correlation of -0.39, which is noise.
So a position view mostly re-sorts teams by overall defence. Use it to break ties between similar schedules for a centre or a defenceman, and lean on the shots view for shots-on-goal leagues, where the opponent effect is real and repeats.
Every team and every week
- Anaheim Ducks
- Boston Bruins
- Buffalo Sabres
- Calgary Flames
- Carolina Hurricanes
- Chicago Blackhawks
- Colorado Avalanche
- Columbus Blue Jackets
- Dallas Stars
- Detroit Red Wings
- Edmonton Oilers
- Florida Panthers
- Los Angeles Kings
- Minnesota Wild
- Montreal Canadiens
- Nashville Predators
- New Jersey Devils
- New York Islanders
- New York Rangers
- Ottawa Senators
- Philadelphia Flyers
- Pittsburgh Penguins
- San Jose Sharks
- Seattle Kraken
- St. Louis Blues
- Tampa Bay Lightning
- Toronto Maple Leafs
- Utah Mammoth
- Vancouver Canucks
- Vegas Golden Knights
- Washington Capitals
- Winnipeg Jets
- Wk 1
- Wk 2
- Wk 3
- Wk 4
- Wk 5
- Wk 6
- Wk 7
- Wk 8
- Wk 9
- Wk 10
- Wk 11
- Wk 12
- Wk 13
- Wk 14
- Wk 15
- Wk 16
- Wk 17
- Wk 18
- Wk 19
- Wk 20
- Wk 21
- Wk 22
- Wk 23
- Wk 24
- Wk 25
- Wk 26
- Wk 27
- Wk 28
Related: games per week and off-nights · back-to-backs and rest tonight · Schedule Optimizer
Frequently asked questions
How much does strength of schedule matter in the NHL?
Less than most fans think. In our backtest (2023-24 to 2025-26, 96 team-seasons), adding remaining schedule to a team's own rating at game 41 did not improve the forecast of its rest-of-season points % (error 0.081 with and without). One standard deviation of remaining schedule is worth about 0.7 standings points over 41 games.
Does the opponent matter for fantasy hockey?
Game by game, yes. A team facing an opponent one standard deviation weaker in goals against scores about 0.23 more goals that night (holdout 2023-24 to 2025-26, 7,872 team-games). That is why the next-10-days and weekly views are the useful ones for streaming.
Why are opponent ratings blended with last season?
Points % over a handful of games is mostly luck. A team's rating adds 40 games of last season's rate (pulled 40% toward the league average) to this season's games, the mix that best predicted the rest of the season in our tests. By 40 games the rating is about half this season.
How is strength of schedule calculated?
Each game is scored by how many standings points an average team would expect against that opponent at that venue (a win model fitted on 2018-19 to 2022-23, with home ice and a 22% overtime rate). The window total is compared with an average slate of the same length, so the 32 teams always sum to zero.