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Strength of schedule

NHL Strength of Schedule Week 9 2026-27

Fantasy week 9, Nov 23-29 (Monday to Sunday, the Yahoo, ESPN and Fantrax week): every team's games, off-night games and back-to-backs, and how strong its opponents are.

Boston Bruins has the easiest schedule in week 9 (Nov 23-29): +0.60 standings points against an average slate over 3 games (opponents' points % .480). Utah Mammoth has the hardest (−0.41, opponents .582).

Easiest and hardest schedules

Easiest

  1. Boston Bruins3 GP · +0.60
  2. New Jersey Devils4 GP · +0.45
  3. Detroit Red Wings3 GP · +0.43
  4. New York Islanders4 GP · +0.36

Hardest

  1. Utah Mammoth4 GP · −0.41
  2. San Jose Sharks4 GP · −0.34
  3. Ottawa Senators4 GP · −0.29
  4. Winnipeg Jets4 GP · −0.28

Every team

Schedule edge in standings points (+ = easier)
NHL Strength of Schedule Week 9 2026-27: schedule edge, opponents' ratings, rest and travel for every team
#TeamGPH/REdgeOpp P%Opp xGF%B2BRest +/−Travel kmOff-night
1Bruins33/0+0.60.48045.401/101
2Devils43/1+0.45.51448.910/02,8961
3Red Wings32/1+0.43.48846.911/05280
4Islanders43/1+0.36.52747.410/19491
5Flyers32/1+0.32.51047.610/09810
6Ducks42/2+0.23.52848.610/12,7531
7Penguins32/1+0.21.53148.311/02,2930
8Sabres22/0+0.20.54050.500/01,6910
9Rangers31/2+0.19.51247.710/02,3470
10Capitals32/1+0.18.53849.510/01,7750
11Kraken43/1+0.14.55748.610/22,9591
12Blue Jackets32/1+0.13.54751.700/01,2901
13Stars32/1+0.09.55550.910/11,7620
14Oilers32/1+0.02.56749.711/13,3321
15Blackhawks32/1+0.01.57049.601/02,9791
16Wild42/2±0.00.55949.900/04,4272
17Kings31/2−0.07.56149.411/04,1831
18Avalanche32/1−0.10.58949.611/02,2700
19Blues32/1−0.10.58950.311/02,8540
20Panthers32/1−0.17.60252.111/02,9000
21Hurricanes21/1−0.21.61952.901/02,5620
22Lightning32/1−0.21.60953.210/02890
23Golden Knights31/2−0.21.58649.412/13,7231
24Canucks30/3−0.22.56648.100/14,3131
25Flames40/4−0.23.55751.410/14,0041
26Predators31/2−0.23.59051.311/02,7420
27Canadiens31/2−0.24.59253.001/13,6111
28Maple Leafs30/3−0.27.57650.411/01,6301
29Jets41/3−0.28.58151.710/12,4891
30Senators41/3−0.29.58152.310/23,3951
31Sharks42/2−0.34.60752.210/12,5611
32Mammoth40/4−0.41.58249.410/04,2641

Edge: standings points against an average slate of the same length (+ = easier); the 32 teams sum to zero. Opp P% and xGF%: opponents' ratings blended with last season. Rest +/−: games with more / less rest than the opponent.

How much does schedule matter?

Not much over a season, more over a week. With perfect hindsight about every opponent, a normal 82-game NHL schedule moved a team by at most about 2.0 standings points from an average one (2018-19 to 2025-26; the 2020-21 divisional season was the exception at a standard deviation of 1.9).

Forecasting test: we trained on 2018-19 to 2022-23 and tested on 2023-24 to 2025-26 (96 team-seasons). At game 41, adding the remaining schedule to a team's own blended rating left the error of its rest-of-season points % unchanged (0.0810 without, 0.0810 with). A one-standard-deviation tougher remaining schedule is worth about 0.7 standings points over 41 games. That is noise next to a team's own quality, so we do not treat season SOS as a betting or futures edge.

Single games are different: a team facing an opponent one standard deviation weaker in goals against scores about 0.23 more goals that night (holdout 2023-24 to 2025-26, 7,872 team-games). Game lines already price the opponent, so this helps fantasy lineups, not bets.

How strength of schedule is measured

For every game we take the opponent's rating and ask how many standings points an average NHL team would expect against it, at that venue. Adding those up over a window and comparing with an average slate of the same length gives the schedule edge in standings points: positive means easier. The opponent rating is points %, blended with last season early in the year. Opponent xGF%, goals and shots per game are shown beside it.

Opponent ratings this early carry a lot of last season: on Oct 21 the typical team has played 3 games, so its rating is 7% this season and the rest last season. Over a full season even perfect knowledge of every opponent moves a team only about ±2 standings points.

For fantasy, short windows matter most: the next 10 days and the fantasy week, where off-nights, back-to-backs and weak opponents stack up. For standings or futures, treat the season numbers as a tiebreaker, not a forecast.

Points allowed by position and the goalie view

The position views rank each schedule by what its opponents give up per game: points scored by centres, wingers or defencemen against them, or shots on goal allowed. The goalie view flips it: the opponents' own goals and shots per game, so a lower number is a softer slate for your goalie. Each opponent number is shrunk toward last season like the main rating.

Shots allowed is the steadiest team trait here (split-half correlation 0.84 in 2025-26). Total points allowed repeats moderately. Which position those points go to does not: the defencemen's share of points allowed had a split-half correlation of -0.39, which is noise.

So a position view mostly re-sorts teams by overall defence. Use it to break ties between similar schedules for a centre or a defenceman, and lean on the shots view for shots-on-goal leagues, where the opponent effect is real and repeats.

Every team and every week

Related: games per week and off-nights · back-to-backs and rest tonight · Schedule Optimizer

Frequently asked questions

How much does strength of schedule matter in the NHL?

Less than most fans think. In our backtest (2023-24 to 2025-26, 96 team-seasons), adding remaining schedule to a team's own rating at game 41 did not improve the forecast of its rest-of-season points % (error 0.081 with and without). One standard deviation of remaining schedule is worth about 0.7 standings points over 41 games.

Does the opponent matter for fantasy hockey?

Game by game, yes. A team facing an opponent one standard deviation weaker in goals against scores about 0.23 more goals that night (holdout 2023-24 to 2025-26, 7,872 team-games). That is why the next-10-days and weekly views are the useful ones for streaming.

Why are opponent ratings blended with last season?

Points % over a handful of games is mostly luck. A team's rating adds 40 games of last season's rate (pulled 40% toward the league average) to this season's games, the mix that best predicted the rest of the season in our tests. By 40 games the rating is about half this season.

How is strength of schedule calculated?

Each game is scored by how many standings points an average team would expect against that opponent at that venue (a win model fitted on 2018-19 to 2022-23, with home ice and a 22% overtime rate). The window total is compared with an average slate of the same length, so the 32 teams always sum to zero.