2026 season · Weeks 15–17 · defense ratings through Week 9
QB Fantasy Playoff Schedule: Weeks 15–17 for Every Team
Who every team plays in the fantasy playoffs and what those defenses have allowed to quarterbacks so far, adjusted for the offenses they faced. Softest on paper right now: MIN.
QB playoff schedule table
Use this to break ties, not to make trades. We checked 2023–25: the schedule number taken after Week 12 told us nothing about what a team’s position group went on to score in Weeks 15–17. See the numbers.
| # | Team | Wk 15 | Wk 16 | Wk 17 | A game | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MINKyler Murray | DETin+1.7 · 32 of 32 | WASin+1.2 · 29 of 32 | @NYJ+0.3 · 20 of 32 | +1.1 | Slightly easier |
| 2 | JAXTrevor Lawrence | @HOU+0.1 · 17 of 32 | @DAL+1.5 · 30 of 32 | WAS+1.2 · 29 of 32 | +0.9 | About average |
| 3 | NYGJ.J. McCarthy | CLE−0.5 · 10 of 32 | @DETin+1.7 · 32 of 32 | @DAL+1.5 · 30 of 32 | +0.9 | About average |
| 4 | LVKirk Cousins | DENin−0.1 · 14 of 32 | TENin+0.8 · 25 of 32 | @ARI+1.6 · 31 of 32 | +0.8 | About average |
| 5 | ARIGardner Minshew | NYJ+0.3 · 20 of 32 | @NOin+0.7 · 24 of 32 | LV+1.0 · 26 of 32 | +0.7 | About average |
| 6 | CLEDeshaun Watson | @NYG+0.7 · 23 of 32 | @BAL+0.2 · 19 of 32 | IND+0.6 · 22 of 32 | +0.5 | About average |
| 7 | PITAaron Rodgers | BAL+0.2 · 19 of 32 | CAR+0.4 · 21 of 32 | @TEN+0.8 · 25 of 32 | +0.5 | About average |
| 8 | INDDaniel Jones | @TEN+0.8 · 25 of 32 | CIN+1.1 · 28 of 32 | @CLE−0.5 · 10 of 32 | +0.5 | About average |
| 9 | CINJoe Burrow | @CAR+0.4 · 21 of 32 | @IND+0.6 · 22 of 32 | BAL+0.2 · 19 of 32 | +0.4 | About average |
| 10 | GBJordan Love | MIA−0.1 · 15 of 32 | @CHI+1.0 · 27 of 32 | HOU+0.1 · 17 of 32 | +0.4 | About average |
| 11 | BUFJosh Allen | CHI+1.0 · 27 of 32 | @DEN−0.1 · 14 of 32 | @MIA−0.1 · 15 of 32 | +0.3 | About average |
| 12 | DENBo Nix | @LVin+1.0 · 26 of 32 | BUF−0.3 · 11 of 32 | @NE0.0 · 16 of 32 | +0.2 | About average |
| 13 | TENCam Ward | IND+0.6 · 22 of 32 | @LVin+1.0 · 26 of 32 | PIT−1.0 · 5 of 32 | +0.2 | About average |
| 14 | CHICaleb Williams | @BUF−0.3 · 11 of 32 | GB−0.8 · 6 of 32 | DET+1.7 · 32 of 32 | +0.2 | About average |
| 15 | ATLMichael Penix Jr. | @WAS+1.2 · 29 of 32 | TB−1.7 · 3 of 32 | NO+0.7 · 24 of 32 | +0.1 | About average |
| 16 | SEADrew Lock | @PHI+0.2 · 18 of 32 | LAR−0.6 · 8 of 32 | @CAR+0.4 · 21 of 32 | 0.0 | About average |
| 17 | TBBaker Mayfield | NO+0.7 · 24 of 32 | @ATL−0.2 · 12 of 32 | LAR−0.6 · 8 of 32 | 0.0 | About average |
| 18 | NOTyler Shough | @TB−1.7 · 3 of 32 | ARIin+1.6 · 31 of 32 | @ATL−0.2 · 12 of 32 | −0.1 | About average |
| 19 | NEDrake Maye | @KC−0.6 · 9 of 32 | @NYJ+0.3 · 20 of 32 | DEN−0.1 · 14 of 32 | −0.1 | About average |
| 20 | BALJoe Fagnano | @PIT−1.0 · 5 of 32 | CLE−0.5 · 10 of 32 | @CIN+1.1 · 28 of 32 | −0.1 | About average |
| 21 | LACJustin Herbert | SFin−0.2 · 13 of 32 | @MIA−0.1 · 15 of 32 | KCin−0.6 · 9 of 32 | −0.3 | About average |
| 22 | KCPatrick Mahomes | NE0.0 · 16 of 32 | SF−0.2 · 13 of 32 | @LACin−0.7 · 7 of 32 | −0.3 | About average |
| 23 | DETJared Goff | @MINin−2.8 · 1 of 32 | NYGin+0.7 · 23 of 32 | @CHI+1.0 · 27 of 32 | −0.4 | About average |
| 24 | SFBrock Purdy | @LACin−0.7 · 7 of 32 | @KC−0.6 · 9 of 32 | PHI+0.2 · 18 of 32 | −0.4 | About average |
| 25 | NYJGeno Smith | @ARI+1.6 · 31 of 32 | NE0.0 · 16 of 32 | MIN−2.8 · 1 of 32 | −0.4 | About average |
| 26 | DALDak Prescott | @LARin−0.6 · 8 of 32 | JAX−1.3 · 4 of 32 | NYG+0.7 · 23 of 32 | −0.4 | About average |
| 27 | MIAMalik Willis | @GB−0.8 · 6 of 32 | LAC−0.7 · 7 of 32 | BUF−0.3 · 11 of 32 | −0.6 | About average |
| 28 | HOUC.J. Stroud | JAX−1.3 · 4 of 32 | @PHI+0.2 · 18 of 32 | @GB−0.8 · 6 of 32 | −0.6 | About average |
| 29 | CARBryce Young | CIN+1.1 · 28 of 32 | @PIT−1.0 · 5 of 32 | SEA−2.3 · 2 of 32 | −0.7 | About average |
| 30 | PHIJoe Milton III | SEA−2.3 · 2 of 32 | HOU+0.1 · 17 of 32 | @SF−0.2 · 13 of 32 | −0.8 | About average |
| 31 | LARMatthew Stafford | DALin+1.5 · 30 of 32 | @SEA−2.3 · 2 of 32 | @TB−1.7 · 3 of 32 | −0.8 | About average |
| 32 | WASJayden Daniels | ATL−0.2 · 12 of 32 | @MINin−2.8 · 1 of 32 | @JAX−1.3 · 4 of 32 | −1.4 | Slightly harder |
Under each opponent: PPR points a game that defense has allowed to quarterbacks above (+) or below (−) what the same offenses usually score, and its rank (32 of 32 allows the most). “A game” numbers are for a team’s whole position group, so one player’s share is smaller. “in” = indoors. Coloured only at 1.0 point a game or more either way.
Does playoff schedule strength predict anything?
Not in the last three seasons. For every team in 2023–25 we took the schedule number as it stood after Week 12 and compared it with what actually happened: the PPR points the team’s quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends scored a game in Weeks 15–17, minus their own average through Week 12. That is 96 team-seasons a position.
A correlation of 1 would mean the schedule number called it perfectly and 0 means no link. With 96 cases, anything under about 0.20 cannot be told apart from 0. Every figure below is under it.
| Position | Team-seasons | Schedule number: spread | Playoff scoring: spread | Correlation | Betting-market version |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 96 | ±0.5 pts | ±5.4 pts | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| RB | 96 | ±0.7 pts | ±6.7 pts | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| WR | 96 | ±1.0 pts | ±9.5 pts | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| TE | 96 | ±0.3 pts | ±4.9 pts | 0.03 | 0.15 |
The two spread columns say why. Across teams the schedule number differs by about half a point to one point a game (one standard deviation), while what a position group actually scores in the playoffs swings 5 to 10 points a game around its own average. Injuries, weather, game plans and plain luck over three games are ten times larger than the schedule.
The last column swaps our defense ratings for the points the betting market expected each defense to allow. It did a little better (0.02 to 0.15) and is still inside the noise. Using the schedule number to adjust a forecast made it slightly worse for quarterbacks, running backs and receivers when tested on a season it had not seen, and no better for tight ends.
So: when two players are otherwise even, take the one with the softer three weeks. Do not pay extra in a trade for a schedule.
Your roster’s playoff weeks
Paste a Sleeper or Yahoo league link to see every player on your team against his playoff opponents, using your league’s own playoff weeks.
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How this works
For every game this season we add up the PPR points an offense’s quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends scored, and compare it with what that offense averages at the position in its other games. A defense’s rating is its average difference, pulled toward last season and the league average (after four games a defense keeps only 7–18% weight on its own results). It is the same rating as our defense vs position pages.
A team’s schedule number is the average of its playoff opponents’ ratings at the position. Half-PPR and standard ratings order the defenses almost the same way, so only PPR is shown. Nothing here feeds our projections or trade values.
Sources: nflverse schedules and weekly player statsUpdated Tue, Nov 10, 9:15 AM ET
Frequently asked questions
Which weeks are the fantasy football playoffs?
Most leagues play their playoffs in NFL Weeks 15, 16 and 17, with the final in Week 17. Some start in Week 14 or play two-week rounds. The tables here use Weeks 15–17; open your own league and the roster view uses the playoff weeks set in your league.
What does the number next to each opponent mean?
It is how many PPR fantasy points a game that defense has allowed to the position above (+) or below (−) what the same offenses usually score in their other games, pulled toward the league average because a few games of defense data are mostly noise. The rank beside it runs from 1 (allows the fewest) to 32 (allows the most).
Should I trade for players with an easy playoff schedule?
No. In 2023–25 the schedule number after Week 12 had a correlation of 0.00 to 0.03 with what a team’s position group scored in Weeks 15–17 above its own average (96 team-seasons a position). Schedules differ by about half a point to one point a game for a whole position group, and real playoff scoring swings 5 to 10 points a game. Treat the schedule as a tiebreaker between two players you rate the same.
Why are so many schedules “about average”?
Because they are. We only call a schedule slightly easier or slightly harder when the three opponents together average at least one point a game for the whole position group. Only a handful of teams clear that at any position.
Do domes and home games matter?
Indoor games are marked “in”. Teams with more indoor playoff games than usual saw their receivers score a little more in each window we tested, but the effect was too small to separate from chance, and home games showed no steady effect. We show both as facts and do not put them in the number.
How often does this update?
The defense ratings update every Tuesday after the week’s games load, so the numbers keep moving until the playoffs start. The opponents are fixed by the NFL schedule; late-season kickoff times and days can still change.