Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kylen GransonTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13E.J. JenkinsTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 8 · 713 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse