Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)10.813.0+2.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)15.97.4−8.5❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael CarterRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Javonte WilliamsRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)15.831.3+15.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler GoodsonRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.51.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler AllgeierRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.812.9+6.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik DavisRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brian RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)6.125.7+19.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)16.736.7+20.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)22.127.7+5.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.94.5−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Emari DemercadoRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.61.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.23.3+2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.01.6−3.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)7.73.1−4.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4MarShawn LloydRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)7.09.9+2.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Phil MafahRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kaleb JohnsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.22.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.828.0+19.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Nicholas SingletonRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.50.2−1.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jeremiyah LoveRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)12.96.5−6.4❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Michael BurtonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)14.614.2−0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3DeeJay DallasRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.30.2−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)3.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)6.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jaleel McLaughlinRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.49.1+5.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)10.99.9−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Max BredesonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Demond ClaiborneRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.00.1−1.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse