Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jameis WinstonQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)13.518.0+4.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.0)7.711.7+4.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)10.813.0+2.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)16.326.7+10.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.2)20.423.7+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Javonte WilliamsRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)15.831.3+15.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Hunter LongTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)0.72.0+1.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)12.716.2+3.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)9.713.2+3.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tyler AllgeierRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.812.9+6.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4John Metchie IIIWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)5.06.7+1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brian RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)6.125.7+19.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Romeo DoubsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)9.423.8+14.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)16.736.7+20.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)22.127.7+5.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)14.516.5+2.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.97.9+5.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.65.2+1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.0)8.916.5+7.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)8.116.5+8.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.23.3+2.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)2.69.9+7.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.2)18.021.5+3.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.2)18.723.1+4.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)9.223.2+14.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.0)1.43.0+1.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.215.3+9.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4MarShawn LloydRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)7.09.9+2.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)7.68.2+0.6✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.2)15.726.2+10.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)7.923.6+15.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)3.118.3+15.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)16.845.2+28.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.828.0+19.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.212.2+10.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Mark RedmanTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.0)0.24.9+4.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Matthew GoldenWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.511.7+1.2✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.713.5+7.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Dohnte MeyersWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Malachi FieldsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)6.713.2+6.5✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W4Josh CameronWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)3.16.2+3.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.2)10.720.4+9.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)1.98.3+6.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)14.515.4+0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.2)18.119.8+1.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John Metchie IIIWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.09.9+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.2)20.231.3+11.1✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Daniel BellingerTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.0)1.83.6+1.8✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ryan MillerWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.83.5+0.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.312.3+11.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.0)6.511.9+5.4✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.98.0+6.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.49.1+5.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.0)8.224.1+15.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BellWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.810.7+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse