Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 13.4 | 13.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris CollierRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 5.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 0.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.6 | 7.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 2.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 0.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 20.8 | 11.4 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | 2.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 1.1 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 11.0 | 15.4 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.2 | 15.6 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | 4.5 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 11.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected −0.2) | 9.4 | 16.8 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 13.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 5.9 | 5.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 17.5 | 13.2 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Evan HullRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | 1.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | 3.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 21.1 | 30.3 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 20.3 | 8.6 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 1.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 1.7 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | 0.9 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 9.8 | 4.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 3.2 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | 6.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse