Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.6 | 15.3 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 6.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 25.5 | 6.4 | −19.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 9.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.8 | 18.6 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 11.7 | 25.4 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 17.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Owen WrightRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 14.0 | 8.1 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh WilliamsRB TB | Fade (Short week vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Short week vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 20.9 | 17.4 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 5.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 9.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 10.1 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.3 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | 10.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 11.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 20.4 | 18.3 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 2.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 1.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 2.5 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 8.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 17.6 | 21.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 6.0 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.5 | 7.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse