Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LV, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 4.9 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 13.2 | 2.7 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 6.6 | 2.3 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 0.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | 10.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 5.1 | 2.4 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Russell GageWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason RudolphQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 12.8 | -2.0 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 4.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 18.6 | 16.7 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 3.9 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 11.2 | 6.2 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 5.9 | 5.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 1.5 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 13.9 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 4.7 | 12.6 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −1.1) | 19.4 | 16.3 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 8.5 | 5.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 9.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 13.2 | 1.5 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 3.9 | 2.2 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 14.0 | 17.1 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 4.7 | 6.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 7.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 8.9 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 3.4 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 14.4 | 9.5 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 11.3 | 2.8 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 0.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 5.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 4.3 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected +0.5) | 7.7 | 11.3 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −1.1) | 8.7 | 10.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse