Edgehalla

Player Props vs Our Projections: Tuesday, October 13, 2026

1677 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 16 of 16 games covered.

That night

Games

  • NJD@DET99 linesGraded
  • FLA@CBJ84 linesGraded
  • BUF@MTL113 linesGraded
  • WSH@CAR106 linesGraded
  • SEA@PHI99 linesGraded
  • TBL@NYR128 linesGraded
  • STL@OTT107 linesGraded
  • VAN@NYI104 linesGraded
  • PIT@CHI94 linesGraded
  • MIN@WPG101 linesGraded
  • COL@DAL96 linesGraded
  • VGK@NSH101 linesGraded
  • TOR@UTA101 linesGraded
  • CGY@ANA116 linesGraded
  • EDM@LAK109 linesGraded
  • BOS@SJS119 linesGraded

Who was closer

This day's scorecard: our projections vs the market
MarketLinesCloser: us / marketLog loss: us / marketOver: us / market / hit
Points398188 / 1840.647 / 0.63339% / 41% / 42%
Assists394212 / 1580.596 / 0.58028% / 31% / 32%
Shots on goal287155 / 1150.699 / 0.70145% / 48% / 46%
Blocked shots2516 / 90.610 / 0.68547% / 53% / 32%
All two-sided markets1,104571 / 4660.642 / 0.63337% / 39% / 39%

Anytime goal (544 players): our average chance 16%, the market's 18% (margin included), 16% scored.

Biggest disagreements

This day's largest gaps between our chance of the over and the market's, with results
PlayerLineProjUs: overMarket: overBest pricesGapResult
Adam JiricekSTLPoints 0.50.1413% +66741%+128 / -165-28Over (1)market
David JiricekPHIPoints 0.50.1211% +77138%+149 / -196-26Under (0)us
Neal PionkWPGPoints 0.50.2623% +34248%+100 / -115-25Over (2)market
Neal PionkWPGAssists 0.50.2018% +45242%+125 / -165-24Over (2)market
Adam JiricekSTLAssists 0.50.1010% +95033%+188 / -240-24Under (0)us
Luca CagnoniSJSPoints 0.50.2220% +40942%+125 / -159-23Under (0)us
David JiricekPHIAssists 0.50.1010% +95032%+195 / -270-22Under (0)us
Vincent DesharnaisWSHBlocked shots 2.51.6022% +34941%+125 / -175-19Under (1)us
Victor HedmanTBLShots on goal 1.50.8822% +35541%+132 / -170-19Under (1)us
Kyle PalmieriNYIShots on goal 2.51.9330% +22949%+107 / -115-18Under (2)us
Jonathan MarchessaultNSHAssists 0.50.2018% +45236%+165 / -205-18Under (0)us
Devon ToewsCOLBlocked shots 1.51.0026% +27944%+110 / -155-18Under (1)us
Ryan PulockNYIShots on goal 1.50.9926% +28543%+117 / -140-17Under (0)us
Olli MaattaMINBlocked shots 1.51.2033% +20050%-120 / -115-17Under (1)us
Kaiden GuhleMTLShots on goal 1.50.9525% +30442%+125 / -161-17Over (2)market
Aydar SunievCGYAssists 0.50.1010% +95026%+255 / -360-17Over (1)market
Evan BouchardEDMShots on goal 2.52.2138% +16654%-132 / +110-17Under (1)us
Jamie DrysdalePHIAssists 0.50.2018% +45235%+175 / -225-17Under (0)us
Jonathan MarchessaultNSHPoints 0.50.4033% +20349%-105 / -110-16Under (0)us
Zemgus GirgensonsTBLShots on goal 1.51.1030% +23247%+112 / -135-16Over (2)market
Ryan LeonardWSHShots on goal 2.51.6724% +32140%+152 / -175-16Under (2)us
Connor MurphyEDMBlocked shots 2.51.8027% +26743%+115 / -160-16Under (1)us
Luca CagnoniSJSAssists 0.50.2018% +45234%+188 / -225-16Under (0)us
Morgan FrostCGYAssists 0.50.2018% +45234%+185 / -235-16Under (0)us
Jamie DrysdalePHIPoints 0.50.2925% +29441%+130 / -160-16Under (0)us
Anthony ManthaNJDShots on goal 1.51.2334% +19150%-103 / -111-15Under (1)us
Patrick KaneCHIAssists 0.50.4033% +20348%+100 / -115-15Over (1)market
Frederic BrunetBOSPoints 0.50.1514% +61429%+226 / -300-15Under (0)us
T.J. HughesCOLPoints 0.50.2321% +37936%+164 / -215-15Under (0)us
Oliver BjorkstrandNYRShots on goal 1.51.0829% +24145%+113 / -145-15Under (0)us
Jared SpurgeonMINBlocked shots 1.51.4040% +15055%-150 / +105-15DNP
Joel FarabeeCGYAssists 0.50.2018% +45233%+195 / -235-15Over (1)market
Alberts SmitsNYRPoints 0.50.1312% +70927%+240 / -375-15Under (0)us
Mason LohreiBOSAssists 0.50.2018% +45233%+185 / -255-15Over (1)market
Adam LarssonSEABlocked shots 2.51.7025% +30439%+135 / -190-15Under (1)us
Pontus HolmbergTBLAssists 0.50.1010% +95024%+330 / -400-15Over (1)market
Frederic BrunetBOSAssists 0.50.1010% +95024%+290 / -425-15Under (0)us
Jared McCannSEAShots on goal 2.51.7726% +28041%+134 / -165-15Over (4)market
T.J. HughesCOLAssists 0.50.1010% +95024%+290 / -425-15Under (0)us
Zayne ParekhCGYPoints 0.50.2925% +29939%+139 / -182-14Under (0)us

How it works

  • About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
  • Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
  • Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
  • Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
  • Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
  • This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.