Player Props vs Our Projections: Monday, October 12, 2026
288 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 3 of 3 games covered.
That night
Games
- FLA@BUF91 linesGraded
- OTT@NJD106 linesGraded
- VGK@MIN91 linesGraded
Who was closer
| Market | Lines | Closer: us / market | Log loss: us / market | Over: us / market / hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 53 | 26 / 22 | 0.655 / 0.646 | 43% / 45% / 51% |
| Assists | 70 | 39 / 23 | 0.546 / 0.551 | 28% / 30% / 30% |
| Shots on goal | 51 | 28 / 19 | 0.645 / 0.659 | 47% / 50% / 45% |
| Blocked shots | 6 | 1 / 5 | 0.818 / 0.766 | 49% / 54% / 67% |
| All two-sided markets | 180 | 94 / 69 | 0.615 / 0.617 | 39% / 41% / 42% |
Anytime goal (104 players): our average chance 14%, the market's 18% (margin included), 17% scored.
Biggest disagreements
| Player | Line | Proj | Us: over | Market: over | Best prices | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor ConnellyVGK | Points 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 43% | +120 / -150 | -17 | Under (0)us |
| Brady TkachukFLA | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.42 | 43% +133 | 58% | -161 / +130 | -15 | Over (3)market |
| Jack QuinnBUF | Points 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 54% | -133 / +110 | -15 | Over (2)market |
| Warren FoegeleOTT | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.20 | 34% +198 | 49% | -105 / -116 | -15 | Under (1)us |
| Matthew TkachukFLA | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.28 | 39% +154 | 53% | -125 / +110 | -14 | Under (2)us |
| Anthony ManthaNJD | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.19 | 33% +202 | 46% | +110 / -125 | -13 | Under (1)us |
| Jack QuinnBUF | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 37% | +155 / -195 | -12 | Over (2)market |
| Trevor ConnellyVGK | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.76 | 51% -105 | 62% | -200 / +152 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Maxim ShabanovMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 29% | +225 / -310 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Olli MaattaMIN | Blocked shots 1.5 | 1.50 | 43% +131 | 54% | -140 / +100 | -11 | Over (4)market |
| Trevor ConnellyVGK | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 29% | +230 / -320 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Rasmus AnderssonVGK | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.51 | 44% +128 | 54% | -135 / +105 | -10 | Over (4)market |
| Joel Eriksson EkMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 36% | +180 / -195 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| William KarlssonVGK | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +250 / -325 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Kirill KaprizovMIN | Shots on goal 3.5 | 2.96 | 34% +190 | 44% | +130 / -145 | -10 | Over (4)market |
| Jack HughesNJD | Shots on goal 3.5 | 2.92 | 34% +197 | 43% | +125 / -141 | -10 | Under (2)us |
| Joel Eriksson EkMIN | Points 0.5 | 0.60 | 45% +122 | 55% | -140 / +108 | -10 | Over (1)market |
| Brayden McNabbVGK | Points 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +240 / -340 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Tomas HertlVGK | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 35% | +175 / -225 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| Tage ThompsonBUF | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 42% | +130 / -160 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| Jonas SiegenthalerNJD | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 18% | +425 / -650 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Maxim ShabanovMIN | Points 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 41% | +128 / -165 | -8 | Over (1)market |
| Ryan HartmanMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +275 / -350 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Seth JonesFLA | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 41% | +135 / -165 | -8 | Over (2)market |
| Luke HughesNJD | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 41% | +135 / -165 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Tage ThompsonBUF | Shots on goal 3.5 | 3.14 | 38% +162 | 46% | +108 / -125 | -8 | Under (1)us |
| Brayden McNabbVGK | Blocked shots 1.5 | 1.80 | 52% -109 | 60% | -180 / +130 | -8 | Under (1)us |
| Evan RodriguesNJD | Points 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 33% | +186 / -240 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Jack EichelVGK | Points 1.5 | 1.00 | 26% +279 | 34% | +178 / -238 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Thomas ChabotOTT | Blocked shots 2.5 | 2.10 | 35% +188 | 42% | +120 / -165 | -7 | Over (5)market |
| Konsta HeleniusBUF | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.50 | 43% +130 | 51% | -118 / -110 | -7 | Under (1)us |
| Timo MeierNJD | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.71 | 50% +102 | 57% | -144 / +125 | -7 | Under (1)us |
| Tim StützleOTT | Points 0.5 | 1.10 | 67% -200 | 59% | -165 / +136 | +7 | Over (2)us |
| Noah ÖstlundBUF | Points 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 40% | +135 / -165 | -7 | Over (1)market |
| Zach BensonBUF | Shots on goal 1.5 | 2.12 | 61% -156 | 54% | -130 / +110 | +7 | Over (2)us |
| Seth JonesFLA | Points 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 47% | +103 / -125 | -7 | Over (2)market |
| Fabian ZetterlundOTT | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 19% | +400 / -650 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Ridly GreigOTT | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 19% | +400 / -600 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Amadeus LombardiNJD | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 16% | +475 / -750 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Drake BathersonOTT | Points 0.5 | 0.90 | 59% -146 | 52% | -125 / +103 | +7 | Under (0)market |
How it works
- About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
- Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
- Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
- Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
- Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
- This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.