Player Props vs Our Projections: Wednesday, October 14, 2026
227 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 2 of 2 games covered.
That night
Games
- MTL@WSH121 linesGraded
- DAL@COL106 linesGraded
Who was closer
| Market | Lines | Closer: us / market | Log loss: us / market | Over: us / market / hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 57 | 31 / 21 | 0.647 / 0.638 | 39% / 41% / 33% |
| Assists | 58 | 34 / 19 | 0.547 / 0.550 | 28% / 31% / 24% |
| Shots on goal | 34 | 20 / 11 | 0.694 / 0.686 | 46% / 50% / 47% |
| Blocked shots | 4 | 1 / 3 | 0.678 / 0.642 | 45% / 53% / 75% |
| All two-sided markets | 153 | 86 / 54 | 0.620 / 0.616 | 37% / 39% / 34% |
Anytime goal (69 players): our average chance 16%, the market's 19% (margin included), 13% scored.
Biggest disagreements
| Player | Line | Proj | Us: over | Market: over | Best prices | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin HryckowianDAL | Points 0.5 | 0.26 | 23% +340 | 40% | +139 / -182 | -17 | Under (0)us |
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | Shots on goal 3.5 | 3.28 | 41% +144 | 56% | -130 / +122 | -15 | Over (4)market |
| Lane HutsonMTL | Blocked shots 1.5 | 1.30 | 37% +172 | 51% | -125 / -110 | -15 | Under (1)us |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 32% | +195 / -270 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| T.J. HughesCOL | Points 0.5 | 0.33 | 28% +259 | 41% | +132 / -172 | -13 | Under (0)us |
| Ryan LeonardWSH | Shots on goal 2.5 | 1.96 | 31% +219 | 43% | +130 / -155 | -11 | Under (1)us |
| Jamie BennDAL | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.16 | 32% +212 | 43% | +118 / -154 | -11 | Over (2)market |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | Points 0.5 | 0.28 | 24% +310 | 36% | +167 / -220 | -11 | Over (1)market |
| Cole CaufieldMTL | Shots on goal 3.5 | 3.01 | 35% +182 | 46% | +109 / -130 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| T.J. HughesCOL | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 29% | +260 / -285 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Josh AndersonMTL | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 20% | +370 / -550 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Arttu HyryDAL | Points 0.5 | 0.14 | 13% +686 | 23% | +310 / -450 | -10 | Over (1)market |
| Noah DobsonMTL | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.66 | 48% +107 | 58% | -155 / +130 | -10 | Over (5)market |
| Vincent DesharnaisWSH | Points 0.5 | 0.13 | 12% +750 | 21% | +350 / -525 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Sam MalinskiCOL | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.65 | 48% +108 | 57% | -154 / +119 | -9 | Over (4)market |
| Alex OvechkinWSH | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.42 | 43% +134 | 52% | -114 / +105 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Aliaksei ProtasWSH | Points 0.5 | 0.63 | 47% +113 | 38% | +146 / -192 | +9 | Under (0)market |
| Vincent DesharnaisWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 18% | +425 / -650 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Cole HutsonWSH | Points 0.5 | 0.65 | 48% +109 | 40% | +141 / -175 | +8 | Over (1)us |
| Kaiden GuhleMTL | Blocked shots 1.5 | 1.50 | 43% +131 | 51% | -125 / -110 | -8 | Over (2)market |
| Ilya ProtasWSH | Points 0.5 | 0.41 | 34% +196 | 42% | +125 / -159 | -8 | Over (2)market |
| Cole CaufieldMTL | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 41% | +135 / -160 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Aliaksei ProtasWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 25% | +275 / -390 | +8 | Under (0)market |
| Roope HintzDAL | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 41% | +150 / -150 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Tyler SeguinDAL | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.72 | 50% -101 | 58% | -150 / +125 | -8 | Over (3)market |
| Justin HryckowianDAL | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 25% | +270 / -380 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Ryan LeonardWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 32% | +190 / -260 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Esa LindellDAL | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 25% | +275 / -390 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Arttu HyryDAL | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 16% | +475 / -750 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Ryan LeonardWSH | Points 0.5 | 0.76 | 53% -114 | 46% | +105 / -133 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Alexandre CarrierMTL | Blocked shots 1.5 | 1.70 | 49% +103 | 56% | -155 / +110 | -7 | Over (2)market |
| Kaiden GuhleMTL | Points 0.5 | 0.25 | 22% +347 | 29% | +225 / -303 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Martin FehervaryWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 25% | +280 / -400 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Tyler SeguinDAL | Points 0.5 | 0.55 | 42% +136 | 49% | -105 / -115 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Tom WilsonWSH | Shots on goal 2.5 | 1.99 | 32% +213 | 39% | +145 / -175 | -7 | Over (5)market |
| Jakob ChychrunWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 46% | +105 / -135 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Thomas HarleyDAL | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 32% | +190 / -265 | -6 | Over (1)market |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | Points 0.5 | 0.51 | 40% +150 | 34% | +186 / -230 | +6 | Under (0)market |
| Chris KreiderMTL | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.60 | 46% +115 | 53% | -125 / +105 | -6 | Under (1)us |
| Cole HutsonWSH | Assists 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 33% | +195 / -235 | +6 | Over (1)us |
How it works
- About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
- Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
- Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
- Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
- Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
- This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.