Player Props vs Our Projections: Thursday, October 15, 2026

That night

• BUF at TOR
• NYI at OTT
• SEA at TBL
• VAN at FLA
• NYR at NJD
• PHI at DET
• WPG at CHI
• SJS at NSH
• STL at MIN
• UTA at EDM
• CGY at VGK

• Anytime goal record that night
• Shot props that night
• Last-night recap
• Scores

Games

• BUF@TOR103 linesGraded
• NYI@OTT100 linesGraded
• SEA@TBL89 linesGraded
• VAN@FLA90 linesGraded
• NYR@NJD92 linesGraded
• PHI@DET100 linesGraded
• WPG@CHI102 linesGraded
• SJS@NSH106 linesGraded
• STL@MIN99 linesGraded
• UTA@EDM97 linesGraded
• CGY@VGK102 linesGraded

Who was closer

Anytime goal (377 players): our average chance 15%, the market's 18% (margin included), 15% scored.

Biggest disagreements

How it works

• About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
• Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
• Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
• Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
• Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
• This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.