Edgehalla

Player Props vs Our Projections: Friday, October 16, 2026

96 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 1 of 2 games covered. Skipped: BOS@ANA (no lines were locked before puck drop, so it is left out of the scorecard).

That night

Games

  • PIT@COL96 linesGraded
  • BOS@ANAno linesSkipped: no lines locked before puck drop

A game is skipped when the props job could not lock its lines in the 75 minutes before puck drop (for example, when our database or the odds feed was unreachable). Lines are never locked after puck drop, so a skipped game stays out of the record rather than being filled in later.

Who was closer

This day's scorecard: our projections vs the market
MarketLinesCloser: us / marketLog loss: us / marketOver: us / market / hit
Points188 / 100.638 / 0.61346% / 49% / 67%
Assists1812 / 50.511 / 0.52531% / 37% / 39%
Shots on goal197 / 90.674 / 0.68049% / 51% / 47%
Blocked shots21 / 10.886 / 0.73742% / 48% / 100%
All two-sided markets5728 / 250.619 / 0.61242% / 46% / 53%

Anytime goal (35 players): our average chance 17%, the market's 19% (margin included), 17% scored.

Biggest disagreements

This day's largest gaps between our chance of the over and the market's, with results
PlayerLineProjUs: overMarket: overBest pricesGapResult
T.J. HughesCOLPoints 0.50.3127% +27643%+118 / -154-16Over (1)market
Rickard RakellPITAssists 0.50.2018% +45232%+200 / -265-13Under (0)us
Cale MakarCOLAssists 0.50.7050% -10164%-210 / +160-13Over (2)market
Declan CarlilePITBlocked shots 1.51.3037% +17250%-120 / -120-13Over (2)market
Jaden SchwartzCOLShots on goal 1.51.3539% +15951%-120 / -106-13Under (1)us
Jaden SchwartzCOLPoints 0.50.4133% +20046%+105 / -135-12Under (0)us
Sidney CrosbyPITAssists 0.50.4033% +20345%+110 / -140-12Over (1)market
Nathan MacKinnonCOLShots on goal 3.53.5446% +11758%-155 / +130-12Over (9)market
Kris LetangPITAssists 0.50.2018% +45230%+215 / -300-12Under (0)us
Cale MakarCOLShots on goal 2.52.2939% +15349%-105 / -110-10Under (2)us
T.J. HughesCOLAssists 0.50.2018% +45227%+250 / -330-9Under (0)us
Tommy NovakPITAssists 0.50.2018% +45226%+285 / -350-8Under (0)us
Nazem KadriCOLPoints 0.50.7051% -10258%-160 / +130-8Over (1)market
Ben KindelPITAssists 0.50.2018% +45226%+265 / -380-8Under (0)us
Yegor ChinakhovPITAssists 0.50.2018% +45225%+285 / -400-7DNP
Bryan RustPITAssists 0.50.3026% +28633%+195 / -230-7Under (0)us
Evgeni MalkinPITAssists 0.50.4033% +20339%+145 / -175-6Under (0)us
Bryan RustPITShots on goal 2.52.1035% +18641%+154 / -165-6Under (2)us
Kris LetangPITPoints 0.50.3429% +25034%+182 / -220-5Under (0)us
T.J. HughesCOLShots on goal 1.51.6548% +10853%-130 / +103-5Over (2)market
Evgeni MalkinPITPoints 0.50.6648% +10853%-132 / +102-5Over (1)market
Brock NelsonCOLAssists 0.50.3026% +28631%+220 / -250-5Over (1)market
Gabriel LandeskogCOLAssists 0.50.3026% +28631%+210 / -275-5Under (0)us
Artturi LehkonenCOLAssists 0.50.3026% +28631%+210 / -275-5Under (0)us
Martin NecasCOLShots on goal 2.52.4443% +13148%+100 / -115-4Under (1)us
Nathan MacKinnonCOLPoints 1.51.5245% +12249%-110 / -110-4Over (4)market
Artturi LehkonenCOLShots on goal 1.52.0659% -14655%-132 / +110+4Over (3)us
Tommy NovakPITPoints 0.50.4335% +18639%+144 / -175-4Under (0)us
Gabriel LandeskogCOLPoints 0.50.5341% +14545%+113 / -140-4Over (1)market
Martin NecasCOLAssists 0.50.6045% +12249%-105 / -120-4Over (3)market
Nazem KadriCOLAssists 0.50.5039% +15443%+125 / -150-4Over (1)market
Yegor ChinakhovPITShots on goal 1.51.9857% -13561%-185 / +140-4DNP
Jaden SchwartzCOLAssists 0.50.3026% +28629%+220 / -300-3Under (0)us
Bryan RustPITPoints 0.50.7553% -11350%-110 / -115+3Over (1)us
Evgeni MalkinPITShots on goal 1.52.1060% -15257%-152 / +120+3Over (2)us
Brock NelsonCOLShots on goal 1.52.0960% -15057%-150 / +130+3Under (1)market
Devon ToewsCOLAssists 0.50.4033% +20336%+165 / -210-3Under (0)us
Erik KarlssonPITPoints 0.50.7754% -11550%-111 / -105+3Over (1)us
Ben KindelPITShots on goal 1.51.9557% -13054%-130 / +113+2Under (1)market
Erik KarlssonPITAssists 0.50.6045% +12243%+120 / -155+2Over (1)us

How it works

  • About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
  • Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
  • Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
  • Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
  • Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
  • This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.