Edgehalla

Player Props vs Our Projections: Saturday, October 17, 2026

1273 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 14 of 14 games covered.

That night

Games

  • NJD@WSH101 linesGraded
  • CAR@WPG92 linesGraded
  • VAN@TBL90 linesGraded
  • SEA@FLA90 linesGraded
  • NYI@TOR100 linesGraded
  • BUF@MTL80 linesGraded
  • SJS@DET100 linesGraded
  • OTT@PHI97 linesGraded
  • NYR@CBJ89 linesGraded
  • DAL@CHI87 linesGraded
  • STL@NSH80 linesGraded
  • BOS@LAK88 linesGraded
  • EDM@UTA92 linesGraded
  • PIT@VGK87 linesGraded

Who was closer

This day's scorecard: our projections vs the market
MarketLinesCloser: us / marketLog loss: us / marketOver: us / market / hit
Points266122 / 1260.677 / 0.66443% / 45% / 42%
Assists246132 / 960.588 / 0.58632% / 35% / 29%
Shots on goal241120 / 1030.688 / 0.68945% / 49% / 46%
Blocked shots82 / 50.821 / 0.69841% / 48% / 75%
All two-sided markets761376 / 3300.653 / 0.64740% / 43% / 40%

Anytime goal (481 players): our average chance 16%, the market's 18% (margin included), 15% scored.

Biggest disagreements

This day's largest gaps between our chance of the over and the market's, with results
PlayerLineProjUs: overMarket: overBest pricesGapResult
Adam JiricekSTLPoints 0.50.1010% +94838%+160 / -196-28Under (0)us
David JiricekPHIPoints 0.50.1211% +78635%+171 / -227-24Under (0)us
Luca CagnoniSJSAssists 0.50.1010% +95033%+210 / -215-24DNP
Kasperi KapanenEDMAssists 0.50.1010% +95032%+195 / -275-22Under (0)us
Adam JiricekSTLAssists 0.50.1010% +95031%+210 / -285-21Under (0)us
David JiricekPHIAssists 0.50.1010% +95029%+220 / -310-20Under (0)us
Uvis BalinskisFLAShots on goal 1.50.8521% +37440%+125 / -190-19Under (0)us
Victor HedmanTBLShots on goal 1.50.9525% +30644%+110 / -160-19Over (4)market
Kent JohnsonCBJAssists 0.50.2018% +45237%+165 / -200-19Under (0)us
Nate DanielsonDETShots on goal 1.51.0127% +27445%+105 / -155-18Under (0)us
Kent JohnsonCBJPoints 0.50.3933% +20850%-105 / +100-18Over (1)market
Conor GarlandCBJPoints 0.50.3227% +26644%+110 / -143-17Under (0)us
Justin HryckowianDALPoints 0.50.2623% +33040%+136 / -175-17Under (0)us
Vasily PodkolzinEDMAssists 0.50.2018% +45235%+185 / -210-17Over (2)market
Alex LaferriereLAKAssists 0.50.2018% +45235%+180 / -220-17Under (0)us
Charlie McAvoyBOSBlocked shots 2.51.7025% +30441%+125 / -175-16Over (4)market
Brendan GallagherVANShots on goal 1.51.1833% +20549%-115 / -125-16Under (1)us
David PastrnakBOSAssists 0.51.0063% -17247%+105 / -125+16Over (1)us
Jack EichelVGKShots on goal 3.52.5726% +27942%+130 / -155-16Under (0)us
James HagensBOSAssists 0.50.5039% +15424%+290 / -425+15Under (0)market
Zach BensonBUFAssists 0.50.7050% -10135%+190 / -200+15Over (1)us
James HagensBOSPoints 0.50.6950% +10234%+174 / -230+15Under (0)market
Trevor ConnellyVGKAssists 0.50.2018% +45233%+185 / -250-15Over (1)market
Sam ReinhartFLAAssists 0.50.3026% +28641%+140 / -160-15Over (1)market
Luca CagnoniSJSPoints 0.50.2925% +29340%+135 / -170-15DNP
Jamie DrysdalePHIAssists 0.50.2018% +45233%+185 / -255-15Under (0)us
Nino NiederreiterWPGAssists 0.50.1010% +95024%+290 / -425-15Under (0)us
Cole HutsonWSHPoints 0.50.7452% -10938%+150 / -160+15Under (0)market
Adam FoxNYRAssists 0.51.0063% -17249%-105 / -120+14Under (0)market
Nils LundkvistDALShots on goal 1.51.0428% +25942%+128 / -155-14Under (1)us
Adam FantilliCBJPoints 0.50.5945% +12359%-155 / +135-14Under (0)us
Gustav ForslingFLAPoints 0.50.2422% +36436%+160 / -220-14Over (1)market
Carter VerhaegheFLAAssists 0.50.3026% +28640%+135 / -175-14Under (0)us
Morgan GeekieBOSPoints 0.51.0163% -17449%-110 / -118+14Over (1)us
Adam FantilliCBJAssists 0.50.3026% +28640%+150 / -160-14Under (0)us
Artemi PanarinLAKAssists 0.50.5039% +15453%-135 / +100-14Under (0)us
Drew DoughtyLAKPoints 0.50.2623% +34437%+158 / -208-14Under (0)us
J.J. MoserTBLPoints 0.50.2623% +33337%+170 / -190-14Under (0)us
Nino NiederreiterWPGPoints 0.50.2119% +42233%+186 / -225-14Under (0)us
Morgan GeekieBOSAssists 0.50.6045% +12231%+210 / -255+14Over (1)us

How it works

  • About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
  • Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
  • Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
  • Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
  • Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
  • This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.