Player Props vs Our Projections: Sunday, October 18, 2026
197 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 2 of 2 games covered.
That night
Games
- CBJ@MIN97 linesGraded
- CAR@CGY100 linesGraded
Who was closer
| Market | Lines | Closer: us / market | Log loss: us / market | Over: us / market / hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 44 | 16 / 27 | 0.682 / 0.657 | 39% / 42% / 32% |
| Assists | 41 | 19 / 19 | 0.576 / 0.540 | 30% / 33% / 22% |
| Shots on goal | 36 | 14 / 18 | 0.692 / 0.681 | 46% / 48% / 56% |
| Blocked shots | 1 | 0 / 1 | 1.212 / 0.932 | 30% / 39% / 100% |
| All two-sided markets | 122 | 49 / 65 | 0.654 / 0.627 | 38% / 41% / 36% |
Anytime goal (69 players): our average chance 14%, the market's 18% (margin included), 12% scored.
Biggest disagreements
| Player | Line | Proj | Us: over | Market: over | Best prices | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean WalkerCAR | Assists 0.5 | 0.60 | 45% +122 | 29% | +220 / -310 | +16 | Under (0)market |
| Sean WalkerCAR | Points 0.5 | 0.69 | 50% +101 | 34% | +178 / -235 | +16 | Under (0)market |
| Aydar SunievCGY | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 24% | +290 / -425 | -15 | Under (0)us |
| Kent JohnsonCBJ | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 32% | +200 / -245 | -14 | Under (0)us |
| Kent JohnsonCBJ | Points 0.5 | 0.43 | 35% +189 | 47% | +100 / -125 | -13 | Under (0)us |
| Morgan FrostCGY | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 30% | +225 / -275 | -12 | Over (1)market |
| David SpacekMIN | Points 0.5 | 0.23 | 21% +381 | 33% | +190 / -250 | -12 | Under (0)us |
| Mark JankowskiCAR | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 21% | +350 / -500 | -12 | DNP |
| Bradly NadeauCAR | Points 0.5 | 0.32 | 27% +264 | 38% | +146 / -185 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Conor GarlandCBJ | Points 0.5 | 0.32 | 27% +265 | 38% | +180 / -190 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Jonas BrodinMIN | Blocked shots 2.5 | 1.90 | 30% +236 | 39% | +135 / -190 | -10 | Over (3)market |
| Jalen ChatfieldCAR | Points 0.5 | 0.23 | 20% +391 | 30% | +215 / -294 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| David SpacekMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +240 / -340 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| William CarrierCAR | Points 0.5 | 0.41 | 34% +197 | 43% | +120 / -156 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Denton MateychukCBJ | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +250 / -340 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Ryan StromeCGY | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +275 / -325 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Adam FantilliCBJ | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 35% | +175 / -220 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Zayne ParekhCGY | Points 0.5 | 0.28 | 24% +309 | 33% | +186 / -240 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| Kirill KaprizovMIN | Shots on goal 3.5 | 3.00 | 35% +185 | 44% | +120 / -145 | -9 | Over (5)market |
| Bradly NadeauCAR | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.87 | 54% -119 | 46% | +106 / -137 | +9 | Under (1)market |
| Kirill KaprizovMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.80 | 55% -123 | 47% | +100 / -135 | +9 | Under (0)market |
| Quinn HughesMIN | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.27 | 39% +156 | 48% | +107 / -125 | -8 | Over (3)market |
| Mikael BacklundCGY | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +250 / -350 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Bobby BrinkMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.40 | 33% +203 | 25% | +285 / -400 | +8 | Under (0)market |
| Bradly NadeauCAR | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 26% | +255 / -360 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Sean MonahanCBJ | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 26% | +285 / -350 | -8 | Over (1)market |
| Valeri NichushkinCBJ | Points 0.5 | 0.41 | 33% +199 | 41% | +140 / -156 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Jordan MartinookCAR | Points 0.5 | 0.34 | 29% +245 | 37% | +155 / -204 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Maxim ShabanovMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 34% | +180 / -235 | -8 | Over (1)market |
| Zayne ParekhCGY | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 26% | +270 / -380 | -8 | Over (1)market |
| Jonas BrodinMIN | Points 0.5 | 0.26 | 23% +341 | 30% | +210 / -286 | -8 | Under (0)us |
| Morgan FrostCGY | Points 0.5 | 0.48 | 38% +163 | 46% | +110 / -135 | -8 | Over (2)market |
| Conor GarlandCBJ | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 26% | +310 / -350 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Bobby BrinkMIN | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.26 | 36% +181 | 43% | +120 / -155 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Bobby BrinkMIN | Points 0.5 | 0.55 | 42% +136 | 35% | +170 / -213 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Quinn HughesMIN | Assists 0.5 | 1.30 | 73% -267 | 66% | -230 / +180 | +7 | Under (0)market |
| Mikael BacklundCGY | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.03 | 33% +202 | 40% | +141 / -170 | -7 | Under (2)us |
| Jonas BrodinMIN | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 25% | +280 / -400 | -7 | Under (0)us |
| Danila YurovMIN | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.20 | 33% +199 | 40% | +152 / -160 | -6 | Over (4)market |
| Adam FantilliCBJ | Points 0.5 | 0.60 | 45% +120 | 52% | -120 / -105 | -6 | Over (1)market |
How it works
- About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
- Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
- Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
- Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
- Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
- This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.