Player Props vs Our Projections: Monday, October 19, 2026
406 prop lines locked before puck drop, each with our projection and the market price. 4 of 4 games covered.
That night
Games
- ANA@NYR103 linesGraded
- COL@PHI95 linesGraded
- SJS@TOR104 linesGraded
- PIT@UTA104 linesGraded
Who was closer
| Market | Lines | Closer: us / market | Log loss: us / market | Over: us / market / hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 98 | 42 / 50 | 0.684 / 0.669 | 40% / 43% / 44% |
| Assists | 93 | 52 / 34 | 0.648 / 0.623 | 30% / 33% / 33% |
| Shots on goal | 62 | 28 / 31 | 0.678 / 0.673 | 48% / 50% / 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3 | 0 / 3 | 0.750 / 0.627 | 50% / 50% / 67% |
| All two-sided markets | 256 | 122 / 118 | 0.670 / 0.653 | 38% / 41% / 41% |
Anytime goal (135 players): our average chance 16%, the market's 19% (margin included), 16% scored.
Biggest disagreements
| Player | Line | Proj | Us: over | Market: over | Best prices | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex KillornANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 25% | +290 / -400 | -16 | Over (1)market |
| Nikita KlepovANA | Points 0.5 | 0.25 | 22% +346 | 38% | +152 / -200 | -15 | Under (0)us |
| Nikita KlepovANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 25% | +285 / -400 | -15 | Under (0)us |
| Rickard RakellPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 32% | +190 / -260 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| Oliver BonkPHI | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 24% | +300 / -425 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| Colton SissonsTOR | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 23% | +300 / -450 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| Frank VatranoANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 23% | +300 / -450 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| T.J. HughesCOL | Points 0.5 | 0.36 | 31% +227 | 44% | +115 / -149 | -14 | Over (1)market |
| A.J. GreerANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 23% | +310 / -450 | -13 | Under (0)us |
| Ville KoivunenPIT | Points 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +282 | 39% | +141 / -185 | -13 | Under (0)us |
| Kris LetangPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 31% | +200 / -295 | -13 | Under (0)us |
| Jack RoslovicTOR | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 37% | +155 / -200 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Jake McCabeTOR | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 29% | +220 / -310 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Jamie DrysdalePHI | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 29% | +225 / -310 | -11 | Under (0)us |
| Eeli TolvanenNYR | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.28 | 36% +177 | 47% | +107 / -125 | -11 | Under (1)us |
| Colton SissonsTOR | Points 0.5 | 0.26 | 23% +344 | 33% | +186 / -250 | -11 | Over (1)market |
| Michael MisaSJS | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.22 | 34% +192 | 45% | +110 / -143 | -11 | Under (1)us |
| Sidney CrosbyPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.50 | 39% +154 | 50% | -105 / -110 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| T.J. HughesCOL | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +230 / -320 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Porter MartonePHI | Shots on goal 1.5 | 1.55 | 45% +122 | 55% | -123 / +115 | -10 | Under (1)us |
| Judd CaulfieldANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +235 / -330 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Ville KoivunenPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +235 / -330 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Nathan MacKinnonCOL | Shots on goal 3.5 | 3.57 | 47% +115 | 56% | -144 / +120 | -10 | Under (1)us |
| Jack RoslovicTOR | Points 0.5 | 0.60 | 45% +120 | 55% | -140 / +110 | -10 | Under (0)us |
| Kailer YamamotoUTA | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 28% | +240 / -340 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Jamie DrysdalePHI | Points 0.5 | 0.29 | 25% +299 | 34% | +174 / -230 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Drew HellesonANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 19% | +400 / -600 | -9 | DNP |
| Jeff MalottANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 19% | +400 / -600 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Tim WasheANA | Assists 0.5 | 0.10 | 10% +950 | 19% | +400 / -600 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Mason MarchmentSJS | Points 0.5 | 0.45 | 36% +176 | 46% | +107 / -135 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| Ben KindelPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +255 / -350 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Pavel DorofeyevNYR | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.57 | 46% +115 | 55% | -140 / +120 | -9 | Over (5)market |
| Eeli TolvanenNYR | Points 0.5 | 0.35 | 29% +242 | 38% | +155 / -165 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Andrei KuzmenkoPIT | Points 0.5 | 0.27 | 23% +326 | 32% | +190 / -256 | -9 | Over (1)market |
| Leo CarlssonANA | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.64 | 48% +109 | 39% | +150 / -175 | +9 | Under (2)market |
| Darnell NurseSJS | Assists 0.5 | 0.20 | 18% +452 | 27% | +250 / -350 | -9 | Under (0)us |
| Cale MakarCOL | Shots on goal 2.5 | 2.26 | 39% +157 | 48% | +105 / -125 | -9 | Over (4)market |
| Tyson FoersterPHI | Shots on goal 2.5 | 1.99 | 32% +212 | 41% | +135 / -161 | -9 | DNP |
| Bryan RustPIT | Assists 0.5 | 0.30 | 26% +286 | 34% | +195 / -205 | -9 | Over (2)market |
| Jaden SchwartzCOL | Points 0.5 | 0.41 | 34% +195 | 42% | +122 / -159 | -8 | Under (0)us |
How it works
- About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
- Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
- Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
- Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
- Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
- This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.