Player Props vs Our Projections: Wednesday, October 21, 2026

No lines were locked on this date. 2 of 2 games covered.

Tonight

About 75 minutes before each game we lock every player prop line we can match to a projection: the market's consensus line, its chance of the over with the bookmaker margin removed (median of US books), the best prices, and our chance from the projection the site showed.
Anytime goal chances come from Edgehalla's goal model (goals per 60 minutes times recent ice time) from October 13, 2026; earlier days and the backtest used LineupExperts' projected goals. Points move with the goals; assists, shots and blocks are unchanged.
Locked lines never change. After the game each line is graded from the box score; pushes and players who did not play are left out.
Scoring: log loss is the headline, lower is better, and it punishes confident misses. "Closer" counts the lines where each chance was nearer to what happened; it flatters whichever side leans toward the more common outcome (usually the under), so read it next to log loss. A market that already knows everything we know will match or beat us.
Anytime goal prices only have a Yes side, so they still include the margin. We show our calibration there but don't score it head to head.
This is a test of our projections against the betting market. It is not betting advice, and a gap is not a recommendation.