Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 8.8 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 9.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 3.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 9.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | -0.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 9.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 3.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 16.6 | 5.8 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 1.4 | −16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 1.8 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 5.0 | 1.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.9 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 18.6 | 4.8 | −13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 1.9 | −15.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 6.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 2.9 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 8.0 | 6.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | -1.7 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 16.2 | 9.4 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 1.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 3.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 0.7 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.1 | -1.0 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 1.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 8.7 | 2.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 25.2 | 7.3 | −17.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 5.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Clayton TuneQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 3.7 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 19.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | -0.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 1.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 5.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 10.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 19.2 | 10.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 3.4 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 22.5 | 15.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 7.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | J.J. McCarthyQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 8.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | 12.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 5.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Max BrosmerQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6) | 13.4 | 0.3 | −13.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 0.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | 4.3 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Philip RiversQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 7.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 7.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JohnsonQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 12.8 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 9.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 2.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 12.6 | 7.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse