Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | 12.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.5 | 20.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.6 | 26.1 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.9 | 17.5 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.8 | 15.9 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.9 | 3.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 20.1 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 13.1 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.1 | 28.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.1 | 7.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.1 | 29.7 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.2 | 21.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.4 | 21.9 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 21.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 18.1 | 28.6 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.1 | 12.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | 2.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.5 | 22.6 | +18.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 4.3 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.7 | 14.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 11.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.7 | 16.5 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | 11.6 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 18.3 | 19.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 4.2 | 4.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 20.9 | 30.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.9 | 26.6 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.7 | 16.8 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | 1.5 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | 1.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.5 | 16.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 18.6 | 24.0 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.1 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.2 | 8.1 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.2 | 8.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.6 | 15.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.1 | 12.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 14.7 | 18.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.8 | 23.5 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.7 | 26.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.8 | 18.6 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | 6.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.3 | 17.6 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.9 | 21.8 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.1 | 6.2 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 19.3 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 2.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | 13.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | 3.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 18.1 | 28.8 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.0 | 9.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 19.7 | 29.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.6 | 17.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 1.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 6.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.6 | 3.7 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 20.5 | 23.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | 8.4 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.4 | 12.0 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 8.8 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse