Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 0.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.7 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 4.6 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 3.8 | 2.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 7.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 8.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | 13.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 5.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 6.5 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 2.6 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 7.6 | 10.3 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 7.9 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.8 | 16.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 6.0 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 13.3 | 13.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 7.8 | 7.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.3 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 6.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David SillsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 9.5 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.2 | 3.4 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | 2.4 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 15.6 | 14.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 11.2 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 8.6 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 20.6 | 13.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse