2026 season · Week 4

NFL Vegas Odds, Week 4: Spreads, Totals and Implied Team Totals

Every Week 4 game with the spread, the total, each team’s implied points and the moneyline win probability, tagged by game environment and weather. Sort by implied total to find the highest-scoring spots for your fantasy lineup. The games are final, so each line is shown next to the score it produced.

Lines update daily (source: nflverse)Updated Tue, Oct 6, 11:20 AM ETSpread shows the favourite; implied and win % read away / home.

Overs / unders

9 / 7

Favourites covered

4 of 16

Favourites won

9 of 16

Implied total miss

5.6 pts

Week 4 games

Week 4 NFL lines
					Environment
DET@CARFinal	DET -4.5	52.5	28.5 / 24	66% / 34%	Shootout	26–32-2.5 / +8
NE@BUFFinal	BUF -7	49.5	21.25 / 28.25	26% / 74%	Shootout	29–26+7.8 / -2.2
JAX@CINFinal	CIN -2.5	51.5	24.5 / 27	43% / 57%	Shootout	22–17-2.5 / -10
TEN@BALFinal	BAL -11.5	42.5	15.5 / 27	15% / 85%	Blowout risk	18–24+2.5 / -3
KC@LVFinal	KC -4.5	47.5	26 / 21.5	66% / 34%	Dome	30–27+4 / +5.5
DAL@HOUFinal	HOU -3	48.5	22.75 / 25.75	42% / 58%	ShootoutRoof closed	34–30+11.3 / +4.3
DEN@SFFinal	SF -3	48.5	22.75 / 25.75	40% / 60%	Shootout	14–24-8.7 / -1.7
IND@WASFinal	IND -4.5	46.5	25.5 / 21	67% / 33%	–	30–13+4.5 / -8
LAC@SEAFinal	SEA -7	42.5	17.75 / 24.75	26% / 74%	–	23–30+5.3 / +5.3
ATL@NOFinal	NO -1.5	47.5	23 / 24.5	48% / 52%	Dome	45–24+22 / -0.5
MIA@MINFinal	MIN -10	38.5	14.25 / 24.25	19% / 81%	GrindBlowout riskDome	10–15-4.2 / -9.2
ARI@NYGFinal	ARI -2.5	44.5	23.5 / 21	55% / 45%	–	24–36+0.5 / +15
NYJ@CHIFinal	CHI -3.5	43.5	20 / 23.5	37% / 63%	–	12–23-8 / -0.5
LAR@PHIFinal	LAR -3.5	42.5	23 / 19.5	64% / 36%	–	24–20+1 / +0.5
GB@TBFinal	GB -3	38.5	20.75 / 17.75	58% / 42%	Grind	17–14-3.7 / -3.7
PIT@CLEFinal	PIT -2.5	38.5	20.5 / 18	57% / 43%	Grind	24–27+3.5 / +9

Team implied totals

All 32 teams ranked by the points Vegas expects them to score, next to what they scored.

Week 4 implied team totals
#
1	DET@ CAR	28.5	−4.5	66%	26	-2.5
2	BUFvs NE	28.25	−7	74%	26	-2.2
3	BALvs TEN	27	−11.5	85%	24	-3
4	CINvs JAX	27	−2.5	57%	17	-10
5	KC@ LV	26	−4.5	66%	30	+4
6	HOUvs DAL	25.75	−3	58%	30	+4.3
7	SFvs DEN	25.75	−3	60%	24	-1.7
8	IND@ WAS	25.5	−4.5	67%	30	+4.5
9	SEAvs LAC	24.75	−7	74%	30	+5.3
10	JAX@ CIN	24.5	+2.5	43%	22	-2.5
11	NOvs ATL	24.5	−1.5	52%	24	-0.5
12	MINvs MIA	24.25	−10	81%	15	-9.2
13	CARvs DET	24	+4.5	34%	32	+8
14	ARI@ NYG	23.5	−2.5	55%	24	+0.5
15	CHIvs NYJ	23.5	−3.5	63%	23	-0.5
16	ATL@ NO	23	+1.5	48%	45	+22
17	LAR@ PHI	23	−3.5	64%	24	+1
18	DAL@ HOU	22.75	+3	42%	34	+11.3
19	DEN@ SF	22.75	+3	40%	14	-8.7
20	LVvs KC	21.5	+4.5	34%	27	+5.5
21	NE@ BUF	21.25	+7	26%	29	+7.8
22	NYGvs ARI	21	+2.5	45%	36	+15
23	WASvs IND	21	+4.5	33%	13	-8
24	GB@ TB	20.75	−3	58%	17	-3.7
25	PIT@ CLE	20.5	−2.5	57%	24	+3.5
26	NYJ@ CHI	20	+3.5	37%	12	-8
27	PHIvs LAR	19.5	+3.5	36%	20	+0.5
28	CLEvs PIT	18	+2.5	43%	27	+9
29	LAC@ SEA	17.75	+7	26%	23	+5.3
30	TBvs GB	17.75	+3	42%	14	-3.7
31	TEN@ BAL	15.5	+11.5	15%	18	+2.5
32	MIA@ MIN	14.25	+10	19%	10	-4.2

How this works

Implied team totals split the game total by the spread: favourite = (total + spread) / 2, underdog = (total − spread) / 2, rounded to the nearest quarter point. Win probabilities come from the two moneylines with the bookmaker margin removed proportionally.

Environment tags use thresholds from the 2023–2026 regular-season lines (895 games): Shootout at a total of 48.5+ (top ~15%), Grind at 40.5 or less (bottom ~20%), Blowout risk at a spread of 9.5+ (widest ~10%). Weather flags: Dome or Roof closed; wind of 15 mph or more; 32°F or colder, for outdoor and open-roof games. Game-day wind and temperature are recorded for played games; upcoming games show the roof only until a forecast feed is added.

Lines update daily (source: nflverse). Past weeks show the final score and each team’s points minus its implied total.

Sources: nflverse schedulesUpdated Tue, Oct 6, 11:20 AM ET

Frequently asked questions

What is an implied team total?

The points the betting market expects a team to score, worked out from the game total and the spread: the favourite gets half the total plus half the spread, the underdog half the total minus half the spread. A 3-point favourite in a 47-point game is implied for 25 points. Higher implied totals mean more touchdown chances for that team’s fantasy players.

How do you turn moneylines into win probability?

Each American moneyline converts to an implied probability (a −150 favourite is 60%, a +130 underdog 43.5%). Those add up to more than 100% because of the bookmaker’s margin, so we scale both down until they sum to 100%.

What do the Shootout, Grind and Blowout risk tags mean?

Shootout: a game total of 48.5 or more (about the top 15% of NFL totals since 2023). Grind: a total of 40.5 or less (about the bottom 20%). Blowout risk: a spread of 9.5 or more (the widest 10%), where the favourite may run the ball late and the underdog throw a lot.

Where do the lines come from and how often do they update?

Lines update daily. Spreads, totals and moneylines come from the nflverse schedule file, which we load every morning; they track market consensus but are not live, so check your sportsbook close to kickoff.

Should I start players in high implied totals?

Implied totals are one of the best single predictors of fantasy scoring for a whole offense, because touchdowns follow points. Use them to break ties between similar players, to pick a defense against a low implied total, and to find stacks in shootouts. Player role still matters more than the game environment.