Calder Trophy Tracker 2026-27
Gavin McKenna (TOR) is the Calder Trophy favourite on Polymarket at 26¢ bid / 27¢ ask, about 27%, as of Oct 21, 2026.
The favourites
| # | Player | P | G | GP | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gavin McKennaTOR · L | 6 | 3 | 10 | 27¢ | 26¢ | 27% | – |
| 2 |  Ivar StenbergSJS · L | 6 | 2 | 9 | 16¢ | 14¢ | 15% | – |
| 3 | Ryan Lin | – | – | – | 19.9¢ | 0.4¢ | thin | – |
| 4 | Maddox Dagenais | – | – | – | 9.9¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 5 | Ethan Belchetz | – | – | – | 8.2¢ | 0.9¢ | thin | – |
| 6 |  Alberts SmitsNYR · D | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5.7¢ | 0.3¢ | thin | – |
Market: NHL: 2026-27 Calder Trophy, 30 listed outcomes, 2 with a real two-sided book (bid and ask within 5 cents and within half their midpoint). Fair % is the midpoint of those books; thin outcomes show no fair %.
The full Calder Trophy race
The top market outcomes plus every stat leader, priced or not.
| # | Player | P | G | GP | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin McKennaTOR · L | 6 | 3 | 10 | 27¢ | 26¢ | 27% | – |
| 2 | Ivar StenbergSJS · L | 6 | 2 | 9 | 16¢ | 14¢ | 15% | – |
| 3 | Ryan Lin | – | – | – | 19.9¢ | 0.4¢ | thin | – |
| 4 | Maddox Dagenais | – | – | – | 9.9¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 5 | Ethan Belchetz | – | – | – | 8.2¢ | 0.9¢ | thin | – |
| 6 | Alberts SmitsNYR · D | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5.7¢ | 0.3¢ | thin | – |
| 7 | Caleb Malhotra | – | – | – | 4.3¢ | 0.6¢ | thin | – |
| 8 |  Viggo BjörckWPG · C | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3.8¢ | 1.4¢ | thin | – |
| 9 | Keaton Verhoeff | – | – | – | 2¢ | – | thin | – |
| 10 | Markus Ruck | – | – | – | 2¢ | – | thin | – |
| 11 | Chase Reid | – | – | – | 1.3¢ | 0.5¢ | thin | – |
| 12 | Elton Hermansson | – | – | – | 1¢ | – | thin | – |
| 13 |  Trevor ConnellyVGK · L | 7 | 4 | 10 | – | – | – | – |
| 14 |  Anton FrondellCHI · C | 6 | 1 | 9 | – | – | – | – |
| 15 |  James HagensBOS · C | 6 | 2 | 9 | – | – | – | – |
| 16 |  Michael Brandsegg-NygårdDET · R | 6 | 2 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 17 |  Ilya ProtasWSH · L | 5 | 1 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 18 |  Cole HutsonWSH · D | 4 | 1 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 19 |  Arttu HyryDAL · R | 3 | 3 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 20 |  Aydar SunievCGY · L | 3 | 2 | 5 | – | – | – | – |
| 21 |  Judd CaulfieldANA · R | 3 | 1 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 22 |  Owen MichaelsEDM · R | 3 | 2 | 8 | – | – | – | – |
| 23 |  Porter MartonePHI · R | 3 | 2 | 11 | – | – | – | – |
| 24 |  Roman KantserovCHI · R | 3 | 3 | 9 | – | – | – | – |
| 25 |  T.J. HughesCOL · R | 3 | 2 | 9 | – | – | – | – |
How much do early stats tell you?
Little, this early. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days into the season won the Art Ross 3 times (the eventual winner ranked 43, 152, 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 8, 25 at that point), and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time. Nine seasons is a small sample, so treat this as a warning, not a model.
Market comparison: we have no forecast that beats these prices, and we do not claim an edge. The market already prices player talent and role; a stat leader with a low price is usually a hot start the market expects to cool. Testing a model against award futures would need several seasons of stored prices; we started storing daily snapshots in October 2026.
Recent Calder Trophy winners
| Season | Winner | GP | G | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Matthew SchaeferNYI · rookie | 82 | 23 | 59 |
| 2024-25 |  Lane HutsonMTL · rookie | 82 | 6 | 66 |
| 2023-24 |  Connor BedardCHI · rookie | 68 | 22 | 61 |
| 2022-23 |  Matty BeniersSEA · rookie | 80 | 24 | 57 |
| 2021-22 |  Moritz SeiderDET · rookie | 82 | 7 | 50 |
| 2020-21 |  Kirill KaprizovMIN · rookie | 55 | 27 | 51 |
| 2019-20 |  Cale MakarCOL · rookie | 57 | 12 | 50 |
| 2018-19 |  Elias PetterssonVAN · rookie | 71 | 28 | 66 |
Reading the Calder Trophy odds
The prices are Polymarket's: the best ask is what one share of "Yes" costs, paying $1 if the player wins. Most of the 100-plus listed outcomes are thin (no bid, or a bid and ask more than 5 cents or half their midpoint apart), so their ask is not a real price. Our "fair" column uses only the 2 outcomes with a real two-sided book: the midpoint between bid and ask, scaled down if those midpoints add up to more than 100%, which is the margin. Thin outcomes show no fair price.
Awards are decided over a full season, so early stat leaders matter less than you would think. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times, and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.
We publish the race and the prices side by side, but we do not have a model that beats these markets, so there is no pick here. Polymarket's taker fee (0.05 × p × (1 − p) per share) comes on top of the ask.
More NHL records and milestones
- Hart Trophy tracker
MVP of the regular season: race and odds
- Norris Trophy tracker
Top defenseman: race and odds
- Vezina Trophy tracker
Top goaltender: race and odds
- Art Ross Trophy tracker
Most points in the regular season: race and odds
- Rocket Richard Trophy tracker
Most goals in the regular season: race and odds
- Milestones
Who could hit a milestone tonight, and who is close
- Streaks
Active point and goal streaks and droughts, with the luck behind them
- Hat tricks
Every hat trick this season and the leaders since 2017-18
- Gordie Howe hat tricks
Goal, assist and a fight in one game
- Game highs
Most shots, saves, hits and goals in one game this season
- Rookies
Rookie leaders, points pace and the Calder race
- All-time records
Every official NHL record list
- Head to head
All-time records between any two teams
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the Calder Trophy?
Gavin McKenna is the Calder Trophy favourite on Polymarket at a 27¢ ask (about 27% after removing the margin), as of Oct 21, 2026.
Who leads the Calder Trophy race on stats?
Trevor Connelly leads the stat race with 7 points.
Who won the Calder Trophy last season?
Matthew Schaefer won the Calder Trophy in 2025-26.
Do the early leaders usually win?
Not often. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.