Hart Trophy Tracker 2026-27
Connor McDavid (EDM) is the Hart Trophy favourite on Polymarket at 40¢ bid / 42.7¢ ask, about 41%, as of Oct 21, 2026.
The favourites
| # | Player | P | G | GP | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Connor McDavidEDM · C | 23 | 6 | 8 | 42.7¢ | 40¢ | 41% | – |
| 2 |  Macklin CelebriniSJS · C | 11 | 3 | 7 | 15¢ | 12¢ | 14% | – |
| 3 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 16 | 6 | 9 | 10.1¢ | 7.1¢ | 9% | – |
| 4 |  Quinton ByfieldLAK · R | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19.4¢ | 0.8¢ | thin | – |
| 5 |  Dylan StromeWSH · C | 6 | 1 | 8 | 18¢ | 0.8¢ | thin | – |
| 6 |  Jack EichelVGK · C | 18 | 5 | 10 | 14.3¢ | 1.1¢ | thin | – |
Market: NHL Hart Memorial Trophy Winner, 118 listed outcomes, 3 with a real two-sided book (bid and ask within 5 cents and within half their midpoint). Fair % is the midpoint of those books; thin outcomes show no fair %.
The full Hart Trophy race
The top market outcomes plus every stat leader, priced or not.
| # | Player | P | G | GP | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor McDavidEDM · C | 23 | 6 | 8 | 42.7¢ | 40¢ | 41% | – |
| 2 | Macklin CelebriniSJS · C | 11 | 3 | 7 | 15¢ | 12¢ | 14% | – |
| 3 | Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 16 | 6 | 9 | 10.1¢ | 7.1¢ | 9% | – |
| 4 | Quinton ByfieldLAK · R | 2 | 1 | 6 | 19.4¢ | 0.8¢ | thin | – |
| 5 | Dylan StromeWSH · C | 6 | 1 | 8 | 18¢ | 0.8¢ | thin | – |
| 6 | Jack EichelVGK · C | 18 | 5 | 10 | 14.3¢ | 1.1¢ | thin | – |
| 7 |  Sidney CrosbyPIT · C | 6 | 3 | 10 | 12.1¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 8 |  Mika ZibanejadNYR · C | 9 | 2 | 11 | 8.9¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 9 | Patrik Laine | – | – | – | 8.6¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 10 |  Nico HischierNJD · C | 5 | 4 | 8 | 8.2¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 11 |  Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL · G | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8.2¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 12 |  Zach WerenskiCBJ · D | 6 | 0 | 7 | 8¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 13 |  Kirill KaprizovMIN · L | 15 | 10 | 9 | 7.9¢ | 3.6¢ | thin | – |
| 14 |  Auston MatthewsTOR · C | 16 | 7 | 10 | 6.7¢ | 2.8¢ | thin | – |
| 15 |  Evan BouchardEDM · D | 16 | 6 | 8 | 3.3¢ | 0.3¢ | thin | – |
| 16 |  Alexis LafrenièreNYR · L | 13 | 7 | 11 | 2.3¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 17 |  Leon DraisaitlEDM · C | 14 | 6 | 8 | 2¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 18 |  Clayton KellerUTA · R | 13 | 4 | 10 | 1.9¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 19 |  Mark StoneVGK · R | 14 | 7 | 10 | 1.8¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 20 |  Matthew TkachukFLA · L | 14 | 3 | 9 | 1.8¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 21 |  Sebastian AhoCAR · C | 14 | 6 | 10 | 1.8¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 22 |  William NylanderTOR · R | 13 | 5 | 10 | 1.8¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 23 |  Tim StützleOTT · C | 12 | 5 | 9 | 1.8¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 24 |  Nick SchmaltzUTA · C | 13 | 7 | 10 | – | – | – | – |
How much do early stats tell you?
Little, this early. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days into the season won the Art Ross 3 times (the eventual winner ranked 43, 152, 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 8, 25 at that point), and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time. Nine seasons is a small sample, so treat this as a warning, not a model.
Market comparison: we have no forecast that beats these prices, and we do not claim an edge. The market already prices player talent and role; a stat leader with a low price is usually a hot start the market expects to cool. Testing a model against award futures would need several seasons of stored prices; we started storing daily snapshots in October 2026.
Recent Hart Trophy winners
| Season | Winner | GP | G | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Nikita KucherovTBL | 77 | 44 | 130 |
| 2024-25 |  Connor HellebuyckWPG | 63 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-24 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 82 | 51 | 140 |
| 2022-23 |  Connor McDavidEDM | 82 | 64 | 153 |
| 2021-22 |  Auston MatthewsTOR | 73 | 60 | 106 |
| 2020-21 | Connor McDavidEDM | 56 | 33 | 105 |
| 2019-20 |  Leon DraisaitlEDM | 71 | 43 | 110 |
| 2018-19 | Nikita KucherovTBL | 82 | 41 | 128 |
Reading the Hart Trophy odds
The prices are Polymarket's: the best ask is what one share of "Yes" costs, paying $1 if the player wins. Most of the 100-plus listed outcomes are thin (no bid, or a bid and ask more than 5 cents or half their midpoint apart), so their ask is not a real price. Our "fair" column uses only the 3 outcomes with a real two-sided book: the midpoint between bid and ask, scaled down if those midpoints add up to more than 100%, which is the margin. Thin outcomes show no fair price.
Awards are decided over a full season, so early stat leaders matter less than you would think. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times, and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.
We publish the race and the prices side by side, but we do not have a model that beats these markets, so there is no pick here. Polymarket's taker fee (0.05 × p × (1 − p) per share) comes on top of the ask.
More NHL records and milestones
- Calder Trophy tracker
Rookie of the year: race and odds
- Norris Trophy tracker
Top defenseman: race and odds
- Vezina Trophy tracker
Top goaltender: race and odds
- Art Ross Trophy tracker
Most points in the regular season: race and odds
- Rocket Richard Trophy tracker
Most goals in the regular season: race and odds
- Milestones
Who could hit a milestone tonight, and who is close
- Streaks
Active point and goal streaks and droughts, with the luck behind them
- Hat tricks
Every hat trick this season and the leaders since 2017-18
- Gordie Howe hat tricks
Goal, assist and a fight in one game
- Game highs
Most shots, saves, hits and goals in one game this season
- Rookies
Rookie leaders, points pace and the Calder race
- All-time records
Every official NHL record list
- Head to head
All-time records between any two teams
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the Hart Trophy?
Connor McDavid is the Hart Trophy favourite on Polymarket at a 42.7¢ ask (about 41% after removing the margin), as of Oct 21, 2026.
Who leads the Hart Trophy race on stats?
Connor McDavid leads the stat race with 23 points.
Who won the Hart Trophy last season?
Nikita Kucherov won the Hart Trophy in 2025-26.
Do the early leaders usually win?
Not often. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.